Recent research has demonstrated the existence of a new type of solar event, the “terminator.” Unlike the Sun’s signature events, flares and coronal mass ejections, the terminator most likely originates in the solar interior, at or near the tachocline. The terminator signals the end of a magnetic activity cycle at the Sun’s equator and the start of a sunspot cycle at mid-latitudes. Observations indicate that the time difference between these events is very short, less than a solar rotation, in the context of the sunspot cycle. As the (definitive) start and end point of solar activity cycles the precise timing of terminators should permit new investigations into the meteorology of our star’s atmosphere. In this article we use a standard method in signal processing, the Hilbert transform, to identify a mathematically robust signature of terminators in sunspot records and in radiative proxies. Using a linear extrapolation of the Hilbert phase of the sunspot number and F10.7 cm solar radio flux time series we can achieve higher fidelity historical terminator timing than previous estimates have permitted. Further, this method presents a unique opportunity to project, from analysis of sunspot data, when the next terminator will occur, May 2020 ( + 4 $+4$ , −1.5 months), and trigger the growth of Sunspot Cycle 25.

中文翻译：

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时间终结者：预测太阳黑子周期 25 开始

最近的研究表明存在一种新型的太阳事件，即“终结者”。与太阳的标志性事件、耀斑和日冕物质抛射不同，终结者最有可能起源于太阳内部，位于或靠近流线层。终结者标志着太阳赤道磁活动周期的结束和中纬度太阳黑子周期的开始。观测表明，在太阳黑子周期的背景下，这些事件之间的时间差非常短，小于太阳自转。作为太阳活动周期的（确定的）起点和终点，终结者的精确时间应该允许对我们恒星大气的气象学进行新的调查。在本文中，我们使用信号处理中的标准方法，希尔伯特变换，确定太阳黑子记录和辐射代理中终结者的数学上稳健的签名。使用太阳黑子数的希尔伯特相位和 F10.7 厘米太阳射电通量时间序列的线性外推，我们可以获得比以前估计允许的更高保真度的历史终结者计时。此外，这种方法提供了一个独特的机会，可以根据对太阳黑子数据的分析预测下一个终结者何时发生，即 2020 年 5 月（+ 4 $+4$ ，-1.5 个月），并触发太阳黑子周期 25 的增长。