Wood supply chain performance suffers from risks intensified by more frequent and extreme natural calamities such as windstorms, bark beetle infestations, and ice-break treetops. In order to limit further damage and wood value loss after natural calamities, high volumes of salvage wood have to be rapidly transported out of the forest. In these cases, robust decision support and coordinated management strategies based on advanced contingency planning are needed. Consequently, this study introduces a contingency planning toolbox consisting of a discrete event simulation model setup for analyses on an operational level, strategies to cope with challenging business cases, as well as transport templates to analyze outcomes of decisions before real, costly, and long-lasting changes are made. The toolbox enables wood supply managers to develop contingency plans to prepare for increasing risk events and more frequent natural disturbances due to climate change. Crucial key performance indicators including truck to wagon ratios, truck and wagon utilization, worktime coordination, truck queuing times, terminal transhipment volume, and required stockyard are presented for varying delivery time, transport tonnage, and train pick-up scenarios. The strategy BEST FIT was proven to provide robust solutions which saves truck and train resources, as well as keeps transhipment volume on a high level and stockyard and queuing time on a low level. Permission granted for increased truck transport tonnages was evaluated as a potential means to reduce truck trips, if working times and train pick-ups are coordinated. Furthermore, the practical applicability for contingency planning is demonstrated by highly relevant business cases such as limited wagon or truck availability, defined delivery quota, terminal selection, queuing time reduction, or scheduled stock accumulation. Further research should focus on the modeling and management of log quality deterioration and the resulting wood value loss caused by challenging transport and storage conditions.

中文翻译：

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基于瓶颈和排队时间的离散事件模拟的木材供应链应急预案

木材供应链的绩效会遭受更频繁和极端自然灾害（例如暴风雨，树皮甲虫侵扰和破冰树梢）加剧的风险。为了限制自然灾害后的进一步破坏和木材价值损失，必须将大量的打捞木材迅速运出森林。在这些情况下，需要基于高级应急计划的强大决策支持和协调管理策略。因此，本研究引入了一个应急计划工具箱，该工具箱包括用于在运营级别进行分析的离散事件模拟模型设置，用于应对具有挑战性的业务案例的策略，以及用于在实际，昂贵且长期的决策之前分析决策结果的传输模板。进行了持久的更改。该工具箱使木材供应管理者能够制定应急计划，为日益增加的风险事件和由于气候变化而导致的更频繁的自然干扰做好准备。关键的关键性能指标包括卡车与货车的比率，卡车与货车的利用率，工作时间协调，卡车排队时间，码头转运量以及所需的堆场，针对不同的交货时间，运输吨位和火车提货情况进行了介绍。事实证明，BEST FIT策略可提供强大的解决方案，既节省卡车和火车资源，又能使转运量保持较高水平，而堆场和排队时间却保持较低水平。如果协调工作时间和火车接送，可以增加卡车运输吨位的许可被认为是减少卡车出行的一种潜在手段。此外，高度相关的业务案例证明了应急计划的实际适用性，例如有限的货车或卡车可用性，确定的交付配额，终端选择，排队时间减少或计划的库存累积。进一步的研究应集中在原木质量恶化以及因运输和储存条件恶劣而造成的木材价值损失的建模和管理上。