Historical seismic events show that water supply networks are increasingly vulnerable to seismic damage, especially in a violent earthquake, which leads to an unprecedented level of risk. Evaluation of vulnerability to seismic hazards can be considered as one of the first steps of risk management and mitigation. This paper presents a stochastic interpolation-based fractal model for assessing the physical vulnerability of urban water supply pipelines. Firstly, based on the formation mechanism of natural disaster risk and the concept of seismic vulnerability, the most representative factors were selected as the vulnerability evaluation indices, and the classification criterion of each index was teased out according to the earthquake damage investigations and researches on the aseismatic behavior of water supply pipelines. Secondly, considering the randomness of vulnerability to earthquake hazards, the test data set was produced by way of stochastic interpolation according to the uniform distribution, on the basis of the classification criterion. The fractal dimensions of all of the indices were calculated based on the test data set. The fractal interpolation diagnosis function for identifying the vulnerability levels of pipelines to earthquake disasters was established. Finally, the application of the proposed model to a real water supply network and its comparative analysis showed that the water supply network was basically in a medium vulnerability level. Through the case study verification, we could find that the model was theoretically and practically feasible. This study helps to gain a better understanding of the extents of potential vulnerability levels of water supply pipelines. It can provide technical support for disaster prevention plans of urban water supply networks.

中文翻译：

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一种基于随机插值的分形模型，用于供水网络抗地震灾害的脆弱性诊断

历史地震事件表明，供水网络越来越容易受到地震破坏，尤其是在剧烈地震中，这会导致前所未有的风险。评估地震灾害的脆弱性可被视为风险管理和缓解的第一步。本文提出了一种基于随机插值的分形模型，用于评估城市供水管道的物理脆弱性。首先，根据自然灾害风险的形成机制和地震易损性的概念，选取最具代表性的因素作为易损性评价指标，并根据地震破坏调查研究，梳理出各指标的分类标准。供水管道的抗震性能。第二，考虑到地震灾害易损性的随机性，在分类标准的基础上，根据均匀分布，通过随机插值的方式生成测试数据集。所有指标的分形维数均基于测试数据集计算。建立了用于识别管道地震灾害脆弱性等级的分形插值诊断函数。最后，将所提模型应用于实际供水管网并进行对比分析，表明供水管网基本处于中等脆弱性水平。通过案例研究验证，我们发现该模型在理论上和实践上都是可行的。这项研究有助于更好地了解供水管道的潜在脆弱性程度。可为城市供水管网防灾预案提供技术支持。