A general and flexible model was developed to simulate progress over time of the epidemics caused by a generic polycyclic pathogen on aerial plant parts. The model includes all of the epidemiological parameters involved in the pathogen life cycle: between-season survival, production of primary inoculum, occurrence of primary infections, production and dispersal of secondary inoculum both inside and outside the crop, and concatenation of secondary infection cycles during the host’s growing season. The model was designed to include the effect of the main crop management actions that affect disease levels in the crop. Policy-oriented, strategic, and tactical actions were considered at the different levels of complexity (from the agro-ecosystem to the farming and cropping system). All effects due to disease management actions were translated into variations in the epidemiological components of the model, and the model quantitatively simulates the effect of these actions on epidemic development, expressed as changes in final disease and in the area under the disease progress curve. The model can help researchers, students and policy makers understand how management decisions (especially those commonly recommended as part of Integrated Pest Management programs) will affect plant disease epidemics at different scales of complexity.

中文翻译：

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不同复杂程度下作物管理对植物病害流行影响的通用模型

开发了一个通用且灵活的模型来模拟由空中植物部位上的通用多环病原体引起的流行病随时间的进展。该模型包括病原体生命周期中涉及的所有流行病学参数：季节间生存，原种接种物的产生，原发感染的发生，农作物内部和外部的次生接种物的产生和散布以及在此期间的继发感染周期的串联主机的生长季节。该模型旨在包括影响作物病害水平的主要作物管理措施的效果。在不同的复杂程度（从农业生态系统到耕种和耕种系统），都考虑了以政策为导向，战略和战术上的行动。由于疾病管理行为而产生的所有影响都转化为该模型的流行病学成分的变化，并且该模型定量地模拟了这些行为对流行病发展的影响，以最终疾病的变化以及疾病进展曲线下的面积表示。该模型可以帮助研究人员，学生和政策制定者了解管理决策（尤其是通常建议作为病虫害综合治理计划一部分的决策）将如何以不同的复杂程度影响植物病的流行。