Climate change is expected to impact both the operational and structural performance of infrastructures such as roads, bridges, and buildings. However, most past life cycle assessment (LCA) studies do not consider how the operational/structural performance of infrastructure will be affected by a changing climate. The goal of this research was to develop a framework for integrating climate change impacts into LCA of infrastructure systems. To illustrate this framework, a flexible pavement case study was considered where life‐cycle environmental impacts were compared across a climate change scenario and several time horizons. The Mechanistic‐Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) was utilized to capture the structural performance of each pavement performance scenario and performance distresses were used as inputs into a pavement LCA model that considered construction and maintenance/rehabilitation materials and activities, change in relative surface albedo, and impacts due to traffic. The results from the case study suggest that climate change will likely call for adaptive design requirements in the latter half of this century but in the near‐to‐mid term, the international roughness index (IRI) and total rutting degradation profile was very close to the historical climate run. While the inclusion of mechanistic performance models with climate change data as input introduces new uncertainties to infrastructure‐based LCA, sensitivity analyses runs were performed to better understand a comprehensive range of result outcomes. Through further infrastructure cases the framework could be streamlined to better suit specific infrastructures where only the infrastructure components with the greatest sensitivity to climate change are explicitly modeled using mechanistic‐empirical modeling routines.

中文翻译：

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将气候变化的影响纳入基础设施生命周期评估：路面服务寿命表现的案例研究

预计气候变化会影响道路，桥梁和建筑物等基础设施的运营和结构性能。但是，大多数过去的生命周期评估（LCA）研究都没有考虑气候变化将如何影响基础设施的运营/结构性能。这项研究的目的是开发一个框架，将气候变化影响纳入基础设施系统的生命周期评估。为了说明这一框架，我们考虑了一个灵活的路面案例研究，在整个气候变化情景和多个时间范围内，对生命周期环境影响进行了比较。《机械-经验路面设计指南》（MEPDG）被用于捕获每种路面性能方案的结构性能，并且性能困扰被用作路面LCA模型的输入，该模型考虑了施工和维护/修复材料和活动，相对地表反照率的变化以及流量带来的影响。案例研究的结果表明，气候变化可能会在本世纪下半叶提出适应性设计要求，但在中期到中期，国际粗糙度指数（IRI）和总车辙退化特性非常接近。历史气候运行。虽然将机械性能模型与气候变化数据作为输入包括在内，却给基于基础架构的LCA带来了新的不确定性，进行敏感性分析可以更好地了解结果的综合范围。通过进一步的基础架构案例，可以简化框架以更好地适应特定的基础架构，在该基础架构中，仅使用机械经验模型例程显式地建模对气候变化最敏感的基础架构组件。