Incorporating the impacts of climate change into infrastructure life cycle assessments: A case study of pavement service life performance
Corresponding Author
Geoffrey Guest
National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, Canada
Correspondence
Geoffrey Guest, NRC Construction, National Research Council of Canada (NRC), Ottawa, ON K1A 0R6, Canada.
Email: Geoffrey.Guest@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca
Search for more papers by this authorJieying Zhang
National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, Canada
Search for more papers by this authorOmran Maadani
National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, Canada
Search for more papers by this authorHamidreza Shirkhani
National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, Canada
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Geoffrey Guest
National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, Canada
Correspondence
Geoffrey Guest, NRC Construction, National Research Council of Canada (NRC), Ottawa, ON K1A 0R6, Canada.
Email: Geoffrey.Guest@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca
Search for more papers by this authorJieying Zhang
National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, Canada
Search for more papers by this authorOmran Maadani
National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, Canada
Search for more papers by this authorHamidreza Shirkhani
National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, Canada
Search for more papers by this authorFunding information:
This project was funded by Infrastructure Canada under the Climate Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure Project managed by the National Research Council of Canada.
Editor Managing Review: Mikhail Chester
Abstract
Climate change is expected to impact both the operational and structural performance of infrastructures such as roads, bridges, and buildings. However, most past life cycle assessment (LCA) studies do not consider how the operational/structural performance of infrastructure will be affected by a changing climate. The goal of this research was to develop a framework for integrating climate change impacts into LCA of infrastructure systems. To illustrate this framework, a flexible pavement case study was considered where life-cycle environmental impacts were compared across a climate change scenario and several time horizons. The Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) was utilized to capture the structural performance of each pavement performance scenario and performance distresses were used as inputs into a pavement LCA model that considered construction and maintenance/rehabilitation materials and activities, change in relative surface albedo, and impacts due to traffic. The results from the case study suggest that climate change will likely call for adaptive design requirements in the latter half of this century but in the near-to-mid term, the international roughness index (IRI) and total rutting degradation profile was very close to the historical climate run. While the inclusion of mechanistic performance models with climate change data as input introduces new uncertainties to infrastructure-based LCA, sensitivity analyses runs were performed to better understand a comprehensive range of result outcomes. Through further infrastructure cases the framework could be streamlined to better suit specific infrastructures where only the infrastructure components with the greatest sensitivity to climate change are explicitly modeled using mechanistic-empirical modeling routines.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest that could be perceived as prejudicing the impartiality of the research reported.
Supporting Information
Filename | Description |
---|---|
jiec12915-sup-0001-SuppMat.pdf1.3 MB | Supporting information is linked to this article on the JIE website: Supporting Information S1: This supporting information provides more information on climate data utilized, pavement maintenance assumption, fleet assumptions and sensitivity analysis including parameters selected and the results. Supporting Information S2: This supporting information provides a list of pavement layer and dimensional information along with key parameters and MEPDG inputs. |
jiec12915-sup-0002-SuppMat.xlsx1.7 MB | Supporting Information |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
REFERENCES
- AASHTO (American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials). (2018). AASHTOware pavement—For state-of-the-art pavement design. Retrieved from http://www.aashtoware.org/Pavement/Pages/default.aspx
- Anthonissen, J., Troyen, D. V., Braet, J., & Bergh, W. V. D. (2015). Using carbon dioxide emissions as a criterion to award road construction projects: A pilot case in Flanders. Journal of Cleaner Production, 102, 96–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.04.020
- Athena Institute. (2018). Athena pavement LCA tool. Retrieved from https://calculatelca.com/software/pavement-lca/
- Basheer, P. A. M., Chidiac, S. E., & Long, A. E. (1996). Predictive models for deterioration of concrete structures. Construction and Building Materials, 10(1), 11.
- Bastidas-Arteaga, E., Schoefs, F., Stewart, M. G., & Wang, X. (2013). Influence of global warming on durability of corroding RC structures: A probabilistic approach. Engineering Structures, 51, 259–266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2013.01.006
- Betts, A. K., & Ball, J. H. (1997). Albedo over the Boreal forest. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102(96), 28901–28909.
- Bhardwaj, A., Misra, V., Mishra, A., Wootten, A., Boyles, R., Bowden, J. H., & Terando, A. J. (2018). Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Climatic Change, 147(1), 133–147.
- Bright, R. M., Cherubini, F., & Strømman, A. H. (2012). Climate impacts of bioenergy: Inclusion of carbon cycle and albedo dynamics in life cycle impact assessment. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 37, 2–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2012.01.002
- Brilon, W., & Lohoff, J. (2011). Speed-flow models for freeways. Procedia—Social and Behavioral Sciences, 16, 26–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.04.426
10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.04.426 Google Scholar
- Brudler, S., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Hauschild, M. Z., & Rygaard, M. (2016). Life cycle assessment of stormwater management in the context of climate change adaptation. Water Research, 106, 394–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2016.10.024
- Chester, M. V., & Horvath, A. (2009). Environmental assessment of passenger transportation should include infrastructure and supply chains. Environmental Research Letters, 4(2), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024008
- Choi, K., Lee, H. W., Mao, Z., Lavy, S., & Ryoo, B. Y. (2016). Environmental, economic, and social implications of highway concrete rehabilitation alternatives. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(2), 04015079. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001063
- Crins, W. J., Gray, P. A., Uhlig, P. W. C., & Wester, M. C. (2009). The ecosystems of Ontario, Part 1: Ecozones and ecoregions. Technical report SIB TER IMA TR-01. Retrieved from https://dr6j45jk9xcmk.cloudfront.net/documents/2712/stdprod-101587.pdf
- Delzendeh, E., Wu, S., Lee, A., & Zhou, Y. (2017). The impact of occupants’ behaviours on building energy analysis: A research review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 80, 1061–1071. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.264
- Du, G., & Karoumi, R. (2014). Life cycle assessment framework for railway bridges: Literature survey and critical issues. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 10(3), 277–294. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2012.749289
- Ecoinvent. (2018). Introduction to ecoinvent version 3. Retrieved from https://www.ecoinvent.org/database/introduction-to-ecoinvent-3/introduction-to-ecoinvent-version-3.html
- Fletcher, C. G., Matthews, L., Andrey, J., & Saunders, A. (2016). Projected changes in mid-twenty-first-century extreme maximum pavement temperature in Canada. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(4), 961–974. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0232.1
- Guest, G., Bright, R. M., Cherubini, F., & Strømman, A. H. (2013). Consistent quantification of climate impacts due to biogenic carbon storage across a range of bio-product systems. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 43, 21–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2013.05.002
- Hammarström, U., Eriksson, J., Karlsson, R., & Yahya, M-R. (2012). Rolling resistance model, fuel consumption model and the traffic energy saving potential from changed road surface conditions. Linköping, Sweden: VTI. Retrieved from www.vti.se/publications
- Hammervold, J., Reenaas, M., & Brattebø, H. (2013). Environmental life cycle assessment of bridges. Bridge Engineering, 18(2), 153–161. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0000328
- Harvey, J., Kendall, A., Santero, N., & Wang, T. (2014). Use of life cycle assessment for asphalt pavement at the network and project levels. In Asphalt Pavements—Proceedings of the International Conference on Asphalt Pavements, ISAP 2014 (pp. 1797–1806). Leiden, The Netherlands: Balkema/Taylor & Francis.
- Huang, Y., Spray, A., & Parry, T. (2013). Sensitivity analysis of methodological choices in road pavement LCA. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 18(1), 93–101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-012-0450-7
- Hunt, A., & Watkiss, P. (2011). Opus: University of bath online publication store climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: A review of the literature. Online, 104, 13–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9975-6
- IESO (Independent Electricity System Operator). (2016). Module 2: Demand outlook. Retrieved from http://www.ieso.ca/-/media/files/ieso/document-library/planning-forecasts/ontario-planning-outlook/module-2-demand-outlook-20160901-pdf.pdf?la=en
- Jiang, C., Gu, X., Huang, Q., & Zhang, W. (2018). Carbonation depth predictions in concrete bridges under changing climate conditions and increasing traffic loads. Cement and Concrete Composites, 93, 140–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cemconcomp.2018.07.007
- Kendall, A., Keoleian, Ga., & Helfand, G. E. (2008). Integrated life-cycle assessment and life-cycle cost analysis model for concrete bridge deck applications. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 14(3), 214–222. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2008)14:3(214)
- Kucukvar, M., Noori, M., Egilmez, G., & Tatari, O. (2014). Stochastic decision modeling for sustainable pavement designs. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 19(6), 1185–1199. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-014-0723-4
- Levasseur, A., Cavalett, O., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Gasser, T., Johansson, D. J. A., Jørgensen, S. V., … Cherubini, F. (2016). Enhancing life cycle impact assessment from climate science : Review of recent findings and recommendations for application to LCA. Ecological Indicators, 71, 163–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.06.049.
- Levasseur, A., Lesage, P., & Margni, M. (2010). Dynamic LCA and its application to global warming impact assessment. Time, 44(8), 3169–3174. https://doi.org/10.1021/es9030003
- Li, Q., Xiao, D. X., Wang, K. C. P., Hall, K. D., & Qiu, Y. (2011). Mechanistic-Empirical pavement design guide (MEPDG): A bird's-eye view. Journal of Modern Transportation, 19(2), 114–133. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03325749
10.1007/BF03325749 Google Scholar
- Loijos, A., Santero, N., & Ochsendorf, J. (2013). Life cycle climate impacts of the US concrete pavement network. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 72, 76–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2012.12.014
- Maness, H. L., Thurlow, M. E., McDonald, B. C., & Harley, R. A. (2015). Estimates of CO2 traffic emissions from mobile concentration measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 120(5), 2087–2102. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022876
- MAPA (Minnesota Asphalt Pavement Association). (2012). Comprehensive guide to PG asphalt binder selection in Minnesota. Retrieved from www.asphaltisbest.com
- MTO (Ministry of Transport Ontario). (2015). Traffic volume characteristics on provincial highways. Retrieved from https://www.ontario.ca/data/traffic-volume
- MTO (Ministry of Transport Ontario). (2016). AASHTOWare pavement ME design interim report—2016. Downsview, Canada: Author.
- MTO (Ministry of Transportation Ontario). (2013). Pavement design and rehabilitation manual. Second edition. Downsview, Ontario: MTO.
- NASA. (2018). USGS earth explorer. Retrieved from https://earthdata.nasa.gov/
- NCAT (National Centre for Asphalt Technology). (2018). Quantifying pavement albedo. Retrieved from http://www.eng.auburn.edu/research/centers/ncat/newsroom/2016-fall/pavement-albedo.html
- Neumann, J. E., Price, J., Chinowsky, P., Wright, L., Ludwig, L., Streeter, R., … Martinich, J. (2015). Climate change risks to US infrastructure: Impacts on roads, bridges, coastal development, and urban drainage. Climatic Change, 131(1), 97–109. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1037-4
- Niero, M., Heinz, C., Bagger, R., & Zwicky, M. (2015a). How to manage uncertainty in future life cycle assessment ( LCA ) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production. Journal of Cleaner Production, 107, 693–706. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.05.061
- Niero, M., Ingvordsen, C. H., Peltonen-Sainio, P., & Jalli, M. (2015b). Eco-efficient production of spring barley in a changed climate : A life cycle assessment including primary data from future climate scenarios. Agricultural Systems, 136, 46–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2015.02.007
- NRC (National Research Council of the National Acadamies). (2008). Potential impacts of climate change on U.S. transportation. Washington, D. C.: National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/12179
- Pang, B., Yang, P., Wang, Y., Kendall, A., Xie, H., & Zhang, Y. (2015). Life cycle environmental impact assessment of a bridge with different strengthening schemes. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 20(9), 1300–1311. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-015-0936-1
- Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Quéré, L. C., & Wilson, C. (2012). The challenge to keep global warming below 2 C. Nature Climate Change, 3(1), 4.
- Qiao, Y., Dawson, A. R., Parry, T., & Flintsch, G. W. (2015). Evaluating the effects of climate change on road maintenance intervention strategies and life-cycle costs. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 41, 492–503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.09.019
- Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V., Cho, C., Chirkov, V., Fischer, G., & Rafaj, P. (2011). RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Climatic Change, 109(1–2), 33.
- Ritchie, J., & Dowlatabadi, H. (2017). Why do climate change scenarios return to coal? Energy, 140, 1276–1291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.08.083
- Ross, M. (1997). Fuel efficiency and the physics of automobiles. Contemporary Physics, 38(6), 381–394. https://doi.org/10.1080/001075197182199
- Roux, C., Schalbart, P., Assoumou, E., & Peuportier, B. (2016). Integrating climate change and energy mix scenarios in LCA of buildings and districts. Applied Energy, 184, 619–629. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.10.043
- Santero, N. J., Masanet, E., & Horvath, A. (2011a). Life-cycle assessment of pavements. Part I: Critical review. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 55(9–10), 801–809. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2011.03.010
- Santero, N. J., Masanet, E., & Horvath, A.. (2011b). Life-Cycle assessment of pavements part II: Filling the research gaps. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 55(9–10), 810–818. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2011.03.009
- Schlaepfer, D. R., Bradford, J. B., Lauenroth, W. K., Munson, S. M., Tietjen, B., Hall, S. A., & Lkhagva, A. (2017). Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils. Nature Communications, 8, 1–9. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14196.pdf
- Schweikert, A., Chinowsky, P., Espinet, X., & Tarbert, M. (2014). Climate change and infrastructure impacts: Comparing the impact on roads in ten countries through 2100. Procedia Engineering, 78, 306–316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2014.07.072
10.1016/j.proeng.2014.07.072 Google Scholar
- Scinocca, J. F., Kharin, V. V., Jiao, Y., Qian, M. W., Lazare, M., Solheim, L., … Dugas, B. (2016). Coordinated global and regional climate modeling. Journal of Climate, 29(1), 17–35. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0161.1
- Sharrard, A. L., Matthews, H. S., Asce, A. M., & Ries, R. J. (2008). Using an input-output-based hybrid life-cycle assessment model. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 14, 327–336. https://ascelibrary.org/doi/full/10.1061/%28ASCE%291076-0342%282008%2914%3A4%28327%29
- Stoner, A., Daniel, J. S., Jacobs, J. M., Hayhoe, K., & Scott-Flemming, I. (2019). Quantifying the impact of climate change on flexible pavement performance and lifetime in the United States. Transportation Research Record, 2673(1), 110–122. https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198118821877
- Strauss, A., Bergmeister, K., Hoffmann, S., Pukl R., & Novák D. (2008). Advanced life-cycle analysis of existing concrete bridges. Journal of Materials in Civil Engineering, 20(1), 9–19. http://ascelibrary.org/doi/pdf/10.1061/(ASCE)0899-1561(2008)20:1(9)
- Talukdar, S., & Banthia, N. (2013). Carbonation in concrete infrastructure in the context of global climate change: Development of a service lifespan model. Construction and Building Materials, 40(2013), 775–782. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2012.11.026
- Underwood, B. S., Guido, Z., Gudipudi, P., & Feinberg, Y. (2017). Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise. Nature Climate Change, 7, 704–707. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3390
- Wang, T., Lee, I. S., Kendall, A., Harvey, J., Lee, E. B., & Kim, C. (2012). Life cycle energy consumption and GHG emission from pavement rehabilitation with different rolling resistance. Journal of Cleaner Production, 33, 86–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2012.05.001
- Zhang, Y.-R., Wu, W.-J., & Wang, Y.-F. (2016). Bridge life cycle assessment with data uncertainty. The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 21(4), 569–576. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-016-1035-7