Talinopsis frutescens (Anacampserotaceae, a family that is close related to Cactaceae) is a succulent species endemic to North America. The aim of this study was to explore, using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), changes in potential distribution ranges considering different climate scenarios: past conditions during the Last Inter Glacial (LIG) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the present and projections for 2070 (RCP 2.6 to 8.5). A pattern of contraction is observed during the LIG, which agrees with other studies focused in species from arid environments. This pattern was followed by a migration towards the south during the LGM and a possible recent expansion to the north as is observed in the present scenario. All future projections show the same contraction and fragmentation patterns, resulting in three discontinuous areas: the northern part of the Chihuahuan Desert, the southern-central part of the Mexican Plateau, and the smallest one in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley. Our projections for future scenarios agree with other studies and support that global climate change tends to alter the current distribution of arid environment species.

中文翻译：

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对与仙人掌科密切相关的北美特有谱系 Talinopsis frutescens 的过去、现在和未来潜在分布的研究

Talinopsis frutescens（Anacampserotaceae，与仙人掌科的近亲）是北美特有的多汁植物。本研究的目的是使用生态位模型 (ENM) 探索考虑不同气候情景的潜在分布范围的变化：末次间冰期 (LIG) 和末次冰期最大值 (LGM) 期间的过去条件、现在和预测2070 年（RCP 2.6 至 8.5）。在 LIG 期间观察到了一种收缩模式，这与其他针对干旱环境物种的研究一致。在这种模式之后，在 LGM 期间向南迁移，并在当前情景中观察到最近可能向北扩张。所有未来的预测都显示出相同的收缩和分裂模式，导致三个不连续的区域：奇瓦瓦沙漠的北部，墨西哥高原的中南部，特瓦坎-奎卡特兰山谷中最小的一个。我们对未来情景的预测与其他研究一致，并支持全球气候变化往往会改变干旱环境物种的当前分布。