当前位置: X-MOL 学术Estuar. Coasts › 论文详情
Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Water Quality and Quantity in an Urban Watershed Using an Ensemble Approach
Estuaries and Coasts ( IF 2.686 ) Pub Date : 2019-12-12 , DOI: 10.1007/s12237-019-00649-4
Nasrin Alamdari, David J. Sample, Andrew C. Ross, Zachary M. Easton

Considerable efforts are underway to restore watersheds and estuaries downstream impacted by urban development; however, climate change (CC) may be undermining them. Current methods are limited in their ability to predict hydrology and water quality with CC and assess its effect on the efficiency of stormwater control measures (SCMs). We developed a method using downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to project precipitation and temperatures; these were used to force a Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Three scenarios, a historical and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) with five GCMs, were used to produce ensemble results. All GCMs in both RCP scenarios projected increases in precipitation and temperature compared to historical conditions. Both RCPs exhibited their largest increases in precipitation, streamflow, total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorous (TP) loads in the winter, summer exhibited the largest increase in temperature. Median loads of TSS, TN, and TP increased 3.1%, 2.5%, and 9.9%, respectively, for RCP 4.5, and increased 3.8%, 3.1%, and 10.4%, respectively, for RCP 8.5. Median reductions in TSS, TN, and TP SCM efficiency for RCP 4.5 were projected to be 6%, 7%, and 11%, respectively; and 11%, 12%, and 17% for RCP 8.5, respectively. Thus, it is likely that additional efforts will be needed to meet water quality goals in the future. Methods such as these can help create climate resilient watershed improvement strategies and guide urban stormwater planning against likely future changes as a result of CC.
更新日期:2020-01-04

 

全部期刊列表>>
化学/材料学中国作者研究精选
Springer Nature 2019高下载量文章和章节
《科学报告》最新环境科学研究
ACS材料视界
自然科研论文编辑服务
中南大学国家杰青杨华明
剑桥大学-
中国科学院大学化学科学学院
材料化学和生物传感方向博士后招聘
课题组网站
X-MOL
北京大学分子工程苏南研究院
华东师范大学分子机器及功能材料
中山大学化学工程与技术学院
试剂库存
天合科研
down
wechat
bug