Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Water Quality and Quantity in an Urban Watershed Using an Ensemble Approach

  • Published:
Estuaries and Coasts Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Considerable efforts are underway to restore watersheds and estuaries downstream impacted by urban development; however, climate change (CC) may be undermining them. Current methods are limited in their ability to predict hydrology and water quality with CC and assess its effect on the efficiency of stormwater control measures (SCMs). We developed a method using downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to project precipitation and temperatures; these were used to force a Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Three scenarios, a historical and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) with five GCMs, were used to produce ensemble results. All GCMs in both RCP scenarios projected increases in precipitation and temperature compared to historical conditions. Both RCPs exhibited their largest increases in precipitation, streamflow, total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorous (TP) loads in the winter, summer exhibited the largest increase in temperature. Median loads of TSS, TN, and TP increased 3.1%, 2.5%, and 9.9%, respectively, for RCP 4.5, and increased 3.8%, 3.1%, and 10.4%, respectively, for RCP 8.5. Median reductions in TSS, TN, and TP SCM efficiency for RCP 4.5 were projected to be 6%, 7%, and 11%, respectively; and 11%, 12%, and 17% for RCP 8.5, respectively. Thus, it is likely that additional efforts will be needed to meet water quality goals in the future. Methods such as these can help create climate resilient watershed improvement strategies and guide urban stormwater planning against likely future changes as a result of CC.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ahmadisharaf, E., Tajrishy, M., & Alamdari, N. (2016). Integrating flood hazard into site selection of detention basins using spatial multi-criteria decision-making. Journal of environmental planning and management, 59(8): 1397-1417.

  • Alamdari, N. (2018). Modeling Climate Change Impacts on the Effectiveness of Stormwater Control Measures in Urban Watersheds (Doctoral dissertation, Virginia Tech).

  • Alamdari, N., and D.J. Sample. 2019. A multiobjective simulation-optimization tool for assisting in urban watershed restoration planning. Journal of Cleaning Production 213: 251–261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.108.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alamdari, N., D. Sample, P. Steinberg, A. Ross, and Z. Easton. 2017. Assessing the effects of climate change on water quantity and quality in an urban watershed using a calibrated stormwater model. Water 9: 464.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alberti, M., D. Booth, K. Hill, B. Coburn, C. Avolio, S. Coe, and D. Spirandelli. 2007. The impact of urban patterns on aquatic ecosystems: an empirical analysis in Puget lowland sub-basins. Landscape and Urban Planning 80: 345–361.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bakke, P.D., and M.R. Pyles. 1997. Predictive model for nitrate load in the bull run watershed, Oregon 1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 33: 897–906.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Balascio, C.C., and W.C. Lucas. 2009. A survey of storm-water management water quality regulations in four Mid-Atlantic States. Journal of Environmental Management 90 (1): 1–7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bosch, N.S., M.A. Evans, D. Scavia, and J.D. Allan. 2014. Interacting effects of climate change and agricultural BMPs on nutrient runoff entering Lake Erie. Journal of Great Lakes Research 40: 581–589.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Butcher, J.B. 2003. Buildup, washoff, and event mean concentrations. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 39: 1521–1528. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb04436.x.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Cameron, D. 2006. An application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios to flood estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged catchment in the northeast of Scotland, UK (with uncertainty). Journal of Hydrology 328: 212–226.

    Google Scholar 

  • CCAFS, 2014. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security [WWW Document]. URL http://www.ccafs-climate.org/data_bias_correction/. Accessed June 2017

  • Chang, H., B.M. Evans, and D.R. Easterling. 2001. The effects of climate change on stream flow and nutrient loading 1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 37: 973–985.

    Google Scholar 

  • Charbeneau, R.J., and M.E. Barrett. 1998. Evaluation of methods for estimating stormwater pollutant loads. Water Environment Research 70: 1295–1302.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, J., F.P. Brissette, D. Chaumont, and M. Braun. 2013. Finding appropriate bias correction methods in downscaling precipitation for hydrologic impact studies over North America. Water Resources Research 49: 4187–4205.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dent, S., Hanna, R.H., Wright, L.T., 2004. Automated calibration using optimization techniques with SWMM runoff.

  • Drake, A.A., and K.Y. Lee. 1989. Geologic map of the Vienna Quadrangle, Fairfax County, Virginia, and Montgomery County, Maryland. U.S. Washington, DC: Geological Survey.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eghdamirad, S., F. Johnson, and A. Sharma. 2017. How reliable are GCM simulations for different atmospheric variables? Clim. Change 145: 237–248.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fairfax County, 2007. Difficult Run Watershed Management Plan.

  • Feng, D., E. Beighley, R. Raoufi, J. Melack, Y. Zhao, S. Iacobellis, and D. Cayan. 2019. Propagation of future climate conditions into hydrologic response from coastal southern California watersheds. Climate Change 153: 199–218.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fletcher, T.D.D., H. Andrieu, and P. Hamel. 2013. Understanding, management and modelling of urban hydrology and its consequences for receiving waters: a state of the art. Advances in Water Resources 51: 261–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.09.001.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu, Q., C.Q. Yin, and Y. Ma. 2005. Phosphorus removal by the multipond system sediments receiving agricultural drainage in a headstream watershed. Journal of Environmental Sciences 17: 404–408.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gao, H., Tang, Q., Shi, X., Zhu, C., Bohn, T., Su, F., Pan, M., Sheffield, J., Lettenmaier, D., Wood, E., 2010. Water budget record from Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model.

  • Giuffria, J. M., Bosch, D. J., Taylor, D. B., & Alamdari, N. (2017). Costs of water quality goals under climate change in urbanizing watersheds: difficult run, Virginia. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 143(9): 04017055.

  • Goodrich, D.C., I.S. Bums, C.L. Unkrich, D.J. Semmens, D.P. Guertin, M. Hernandez, S. Yatheendradas, J.R. Kennedy, and L.R. Levick. 2012. KINEROS 2/AGWA: Model use, calibration, and validation. Transactions of the ASABE 55: 1561–1574.

    Google Scholar 

  • Green, W.H., and G.A. Ampt. 1911. Studies on Soil Phyics. Journal of Agricultural Science 4: 1–24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore. 2004. Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology 5: 64–85.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gudmundsson, L., J.B. Bremnes, J.E. Haugen, and T. Engen-Skaugen. 2012. Technical Note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations–a comparison of methods. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16: 3383–3390.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gupta, H.V., S. Sorooshian, and P.O. Yapo. 1999. Status of automatic calibration for hydrologic models: comparison with multilevel expert calibration. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 4: 135–143.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hathaway, J.M., R.A. Brown, J.S. Fu, and W.F. Hunt. 2014. Bioretention function under climate change scenarios in North Carolina, USA. Journal of Hydrology 519: 503–511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.037.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hatt, B.E., T.D. Fletcher, C.J. Walsh, and S.L. Taylor. 2004. The influence of urban density and drainage infrastructure on the concentrations and loads of pollutants in small streams. Environmental Management 34 (1): 112–124. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-004-0221-8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayhoe, K., C.P. Wake, T.G. Huntington, L. Luo, M.D. Schwartz, J. Sheffield, E. Wood, B. Anderson, J. Bradbury, A. DeGaetano, T.J. Troy, and D. Wolfe. 2007. Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast. Climate Dynamics 28: 381–407. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0187-8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayhoe, K., C. Wake, B. Anderson, X.-Z. Liang, E. Maurer, J. Zhu, J. Bradbury, A. DeGaetano, A.M. Stoner, and D. Wuebbles. 2008. Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 13: 425–436.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hirschman, D., K. Collins, and T.R. Schueler. 2008. Technical Memorandum: The Runoff Reduction Method. Ellicott City: Center for Watershed Protection & Chesapeake Stormwater Network.

    Google Scholar 

  • Howarth, R.W., D.P. Swaney, E.W. Boyer, R. Marino, N. Jaworski, and C. Goodale. 2006. The influence of climate on average nitrogen export from large watersheds in the Northeastern United States. In Nitrogen Cycling in the Americas: Natural and Anthropogenic Influences and Controls, ed. L.A. Martinelli and R.W. Howarth, 163–186. New York: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huber, W.C., Dickinson, R.E., Rosener, L.A., Aldrich, J.A., 1988. Stormwater Management Model User’s Manual, Version 4.

  • Huntington, T. G. (2006). Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: review and synthesis. Journal of Hydrology, 319(1-4), 83-95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Imteaz, M.A., A. Shanableh, A. Rahman, and A. Ahsan. 2011. Optimisation of rainwater tank design from large roofs: A case study in Melbourne, Australia. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 55: 1022–1029. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2011.05.013.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Imteaz, M.A., V. Uddameri, and A. Ahsan. 2016. Numerical model for the transport and degradation of pollutants through wetlands. International Journal of Water 10: 1–12.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC. 2014. Climate Change 2014–impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Regional Aspects. Cambridge University Press.

  • Jacobson, C.R. 2011. Identification and quantification of the hydrological impacts of imperviousness in urban catchments: a review. J. Environ. Manage 92: 1438–1448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.01.018.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • James, W., and R.C. James. 1998. Users Guide to SWMM4 Runoff and Supporting Modules-Hydrology. Guelph: Computational Hydraulics International.

    Google Scholar 

  • James, W., L.A. Rossman, and W.R.C. James. 2010. User’s guide to SWMM 5. Guelph: Computational Hydraulics International.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jennings, D.B., S.T. Jarnagin, and S. Taylor Jarnagin. 2002. Changes in anthropogenic impervious surfaces, precipitation and daily streamflow discharge: a historical perspective in a mid-atlantic subwatershed. Landscape Ecology 17: 471–489. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021211114125.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karl, T.R., J.M. Melillo, T.C. Peterson, and S.J. Hassol. 2009. Global climate change impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press.

  • Kaushal, S.S., and K.T. Belt. 2012. The urban watershed continuum: evolving spatial and temporal dimensions. Urban Ecosystems 15: 409–435.

    Google Scholar 

  • Krysanova, V., T. Vetter, S. Eisner, S. Huang, I. Pechlivanidis, M. Strauch, A. Gelfan, R. Kumar, V. Aich, and B. Arheimer. 2017. Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis. Environmental Research Letters 12: 105002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • LeBoutillier, D.W., J.A. Kells, and G.J. Putz. 2000. Prediction of pollutant load in stormwater runoff from an urban residential area. Canadian Water Resources Journal 25: 343–359.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, T.M., W. Jetz, L.T. Ming, and J. Walter. 2008. Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences 275 (1640): 1261–1270. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1732.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li, H., Sheffield, J., Wood, E.F., 2010. Bias correction of monthly precipitation and temperature fields from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 models using equidistant quantile matching. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmosphere 115.

  • Liu, J., Sample, D., 2013. Frequency analysis for precipitation events and dry durations of virginia.

  • Milly, P.C.D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R.M. Hirsch, Z.W. Kundzewicz, D.P. Lettenmaier, and R.J. Stouffer. 2008. Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science (80-. ) 319: 573–LP-574. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1151915.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Moglen, G.E., and G.E. Rios Vidal. 2014. Climate change and storm water infrastructure in the mid-Atlantic region: Design mismatch coming? Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 19: 4014026.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moore, M.V., M.L. Pace, J.R. Mather, P.S. Murdoch, R.W. Howarth, C.L. Folt, C.Y. Chen, H.F. Hemond, P.A. Flebbe, and C.T. Driscoll. 1997. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic region. Hydrologcal Processess 11: 925–947.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moss, R.H., J.A. Edmonds, K.A. Hibbard, M.R. Manning, S.K. Rose, D.P. Van Vuuren, T.R. Carter, S. Emori, M. Kainuma, T. Kram, G.A. Meehl, J.F.B. Mitchell, N. Nakicenovic, K. Riahi, S.J. Smith, R.J. Stouffer, A.M. Thomson, J.P. Weyant, and T.J. Wilbanks. 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463: 747.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Mote, P.W., and E.P. Salathé. 2010. Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Climate Change 102: 29–50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murphy, R.R., W.M. Kemp, and W.P. Ball. 2011. Long-term trends in Chesapeake Bay seasonal hypoxia, stratification, and nutrient loading. Estuaries and Coasts 34: 1293–1309.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Najjar, R.G., C.R. Pyke, M.B. Adams, D. Breitburg, C. Hershner, M. Kemp, R. Howarth, M.R. Mulholland, M. Paolisso, D. Secor, K. Sellner, D. Wardrop, and R. Wood. 2010. Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 86: 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2009.09.026.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nakićenović, N., and R. Swart. 2000. Special report on emission scenarios. Chang: Intergov. Panel Clim.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nash, J.E., and J.V. Sutcliffe. 1970. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I—a discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology 10: 282–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neff, R., H. Chang, C.G. Knight, R.G. Najjar, B. Yarnal, and H.A. Walker. 2000. Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources. Climate Research 14: 207–218.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nelson, E.J., and D.B. Booth. 2002. Sediment sources in an urbanizing, mixed land-use watershed. Journal of Hydrology 264: 51–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • NRCS, 2015. Web Soil Survey [WWW Document]. URL http://websoilsurvey.nrcs.usda.gov/.. Accessed September 2016

  • Pachauri, R. K., Allen, M. R., Barros, V. R., Broome, J., Cramer, W., Christ, R., ... & Dubash, N. K. (2014). Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (p. 151). Ipcc.

  • Pierce, D.W., D.R. Cayan, E.P. Maurer, J.T. Abatzoglou, and K.C. Hegewisch. 2015. Improved bias correction techniques for hydrological simulations of climate change. Journal of Hydrometeorology 16: 2421–2442.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pyke, C., M.P. Warren, T. Johnson, J. LaGro, J. Scharfenberg, P. Groth, R. Freed, W. Schroeer, and E. Main. 2011. Assessment of low impact development for managing stormwater with changing precipitation due to climate change. Landscape and Urban Planning 103: 166–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.07.006.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rossman, L.A., 2004. Storm Water Management Model User’s Manual, Version 5.0. Cincinatti, OH. https://doi.org/https://www.epa.gov/water-research/storm-water-management-model-swmm. Accessed March 2015

  • Rossman, L.A., 2015. SWMM5 Water Quality Continuity Error.

  • Sage, J., Berthier, E., Gromaire, M.-C., 2015. Stormwater Management Criteria for On-Site Pollution Control: A Comparative Assessment of International Practices. Environmental Management 1–15.

  • Sample, D.J., Wang, C.-Y., Grizzard, T.J., 2012. Assessing the Potential of Floating Treatment Wetlands for Meeting TMDLs. World Water Environ. Conf.

  • Sample, D., W. Lucas, T. Janeski, R. Roseen, D. Powers, J. Freeborn, and L. Fox. 2014. Greening Richmond, USA: a sustainable urban drainage demonstration project. Proceedings of the Institutuin of Civil Engineering 167: 88.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schaefer, S., and M. Alber. 2007. Temporal and spatial trends in nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the watershed of the Altamaha River, Georgia, USA. Biogeochemistry 86 (3): 231–249. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-007-9155-6.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schueler, T., 2011. Ponds in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. In Chesapeake Stormwater Partnership Retreat. Shepherdstown, WV.

  • Semadeni-Davies, A. 2006. Winter performance of an urban stormwater pond in southern Sweden. Hydrological Processess 20: 165–182. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5909.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Semadeni-Davies, A. 2012. Implications of climate and urban development on the design of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS). Journal of Water and Climate Change 3: 239–256.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shapiro, S.S., and M.B. Wilk. 1965. An analysis of variance test for normality (complete samples). Biometrika 52: 591–611.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharma, A.K., L. Vezzaro, H. Birch, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, and P.S. Mikkelsen. 2016. Effect of climate change on stormwater runoff characteristics and treatment efficiencies of stormwater retention ponds: a case study from Denmark using TSS and Cu as indicator pollutants. Springerplus 5: 1984.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheffield, J., A.P. Barrett, B. Colle, D. Nelun Fernando, R. Fu, K.L. Geil, Q. Hu, J. Kinter, S. Kumar, B. Langenbrunner, K. Lombardo, L.N. Long, E. Maloney, A. Mariotti, J.E. Meyerson, K.C. Mo, J. David Neelin, S. Nigam, Z. Pan, T. Ren, A. Ruiz-Barradas, Y.L. Serra, A. Seth, J.M. Thibeault, J.C. Stroeve, Z. Yang, and L. Yin. 2013. North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Continental and Regional Climatology. Journal of Climate 26: 9209–9245. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00592.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U.S. EPA, 2010. Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load for Nitrogen, Phosphorous, and Sediment. In USEPA Region III. Philadelphia, PA.

  • USEPA. 1983. Results of the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program. Washington, D.C.: Water Planning Division.

    Google Scholar 

  • USEPA. 2010. Guidance for Federal Land Management in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Chapter 3. Urban and Suburban. U.S. Washington, DC: Environmental Protection Agency.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vollertsen, J., Åstebøl, S.O., Coward, J.E., Fageraas, T., Madsen, H.I., Hvitved-Jacobsen, T., Nielsen, A.H., 2007. Monitoring and modelling the performance of a wet pond for treatment of highway runoff in cold climates. In Highway and Urban Environment. Springer, pp. 499–509.

  • Wagena, M.B., and Z.M. Easton. 2018. Agricultural conservation practices can help mitigate the impact of climate change. Science of the Total Environment 635: 132–143.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Walsh, C.J., H.R. Allison, J.W. Feminella, P.D. Cottingham, P.M. Groffman, and R.P.M. Ii. 2005. The urban stream syndrome: current knowledge and the search for a cure. Journal of the North American Benthological Society 24: 706–723. https://doi.org/10.1899/04-028.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, L., and W. Chen. 2014. Equiratio cumulative distribution function matching as an improvement to the equidistant approach in bias correction of precipitation. Atmospheric Science Letters 15: 1–6.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, M., D. Zhang, A. Adhityan, W.J. Ng, J. Dong, and S.K. Tan. 2016. Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios. Journal of Hydrology 543: 423–432.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wanielista, M.P., and Y.A. Yousef. 1993. Design and analysis of an irrigation pond using urban stormwater runoff. In Engineering Hydrology, 724–729. ASCE.

  • Warrick, J.A., J.M. Melack, and B.M. Goodridge. 2015. Sediment yields from small, steep coastal watersheds of California. Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies 4: 516–534.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wood, A.W., L.R. Leung, V. Sridhar, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2004. Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Climate Change 62: 189–216.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yazdi, M. N., Sample, D. J., Scott, D., Owen, J. S., Ketabchy, M., & Alamdari, N. (2019). Water quality characterization of storm and irrigation runoff from a container nursery. Science of The Total Environment, 667: 166-178.

  • Zahmatkesh, Z., M. Karamouz, E. Goharian, and S.J. Burian. 2014. Analysis of the effects of climate change on urban storm water runoff using statistically downscaled precipitation data and a change factor approach. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 20: 5014022.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Q., D.C. Brady, and W.P. Ball. 2013. Long-term seasonal trends of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment load from the non-tidal Susquehanna River Basin to Chesapeake Bay. Science of the Total Environment 452–453: 208–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.02.012.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors express their appreciation to Ray Najjar of Penn State University, John Jastram of the U.S. Geological Survey, Darold Burdick and Daniel Habete of Fairfax County, and Celso Ferreira of George Mason University, who facilitated this research. Support for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation, Water Sustainability and Climate WSC-Category 1 Collaborative Project: Coupled Multi-Scale Economic, Hydrologic and Estuarine Modeling to assess Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality Management, Grant #23032. Funding for this work was provided in part by the Virginia Agricultural Experiment Station and the Hatch program, Project S1063, of the National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St, Golden, CO, 80401, USA

    Nasrin Alamdari & Zachary M. Easton

  2. Department of Biological System Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 155 Ag Quad Lane, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA

    David J. Sample

  3. Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, 503 Walker Bldg 6, University Park, PA, 16802, USA

    Andrew C. Ross

Authors
  1. Nasrin Alamdari
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. David J. Sample
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Andrew C. Ross
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Zachary M. Easton
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to David J. Sample.

Additional information

Communicated by Dennis Swaney

Electronic supplementary material

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Alamdari, N., Sample, D.J., Ross, A.C. et al. Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Water Quality and Quantity in an Urban Watershed Using an Ensemble Approach. Estuaries and Coasts 43, 56–72 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-019-00649-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-019-00649-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation