Projections of future sterodynamic sea level change from global climate models are associated with different sources of uncertainty. From a scientific, societal and policy-making perspective, it is relevant to both understand and reduce uncertainty in projections of climate change. Here, we review recent findings which describe, and shed light on, climate model uncertainty focusing particularly on two types of model uncertainty that contribute to the currently large spread in dynamical sea level patterns (i.e., regional sea level relative to the global mean). These uncertainties are: (1) intermodel uncertainty due to differences in models’ responses in a warming climate and (2) internal model variability due to an individual model’s own climate variability. On timescales longer than about 50 years from now, anthropogenic sterodynamic (dynamic plus global mean) sea level trends from middle- and high-end forcing scenarios will be larger than internal model variability. By 2100, these anthropogenic trends will also be larger than intermodel uncertainty when global mean thermosteric sea level rise and/or melting contributions from land ice are considered along with dynamic sea level changes. Furthermore, we discuss projections of future coastal sea level from the perspective of global climate models as well as from downscaled efforts based on regional climate models. Much knowledge and understanding has been achieved in the last decade from intermodel experiments and studies of sea level process-based model; here, the prospects for improving coastal sea level and reducing sea level uncertainty are discussed.

中文翻译：

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区域海平面预测中的气候模型不确定性和趋势检测：综述

根据全球气候模型对未来立体动力学海平面变化的预测与不同的不确定性来源有关。从科学、社会和政策制定的角度来看，理解和减少气候变化预测的不确定性都是相关的。在这里，我们回顾了最近的发现，这些发现描述并阐明了气候模型的不确定性，特别关注导致当前动态海平面模式（即区域海平面相对于全球平均值）的广泛分布的两种类型的模型不确定性。这些不确定性是：(1) 由于模型在变暖气候中响应的差异而导致的模型间不确定性和 (2) 由于单个模型自身的气候变化而导致的内部模型变异性。在超过大约 50 年后的时间尺度上，来自中高端强迫情景的人为空间动力学（动态加上全球平均）海平面趋势将大于内部模式变异性。到 2100 年，当考虑全球平均温热海平面上升和/或陆地冰融化的贡献以及动态海平面变化时，这些人为趋势也将大于模型间的不确定性。此外，我们从全球气候模型的角度以及基于区域气候模型的缩小规模的努力讨论了对未来沿海海平面的预测。在过去十年中，通过模型间实验和基于海平面过程模型的研究，已经获得了很多知识和理解；在这里，讨论了改善沿海海平面和减少海平面不确定性的前景。