Abstract
Projections of future sterodynamic sea level change from global climate models are associated with different sources of uncertainty. From a scientific, societal and policy-making perspective, it is relevant to both understand and reduce uncertainty in projections of climate change. Here, we review recent findings which describe, and shed light on, climate model uncertainty focusing particularly on two types of model uncertainty that contribute to the currently large spread in dynamical sea level patterns (i.e., regional sea level relative to the global mean). These uncertainties are: (1) intermodel uncertainty due to differences in models’ responses in a warming climate and (2) internal model variability due to an individual model’s own climate variability. On timescales longer than about 50 years from now, anthropogenic sterodynamic (dynamic plus global mean) sea level trends from middle- and high-end forcing scenarios will be larger than internal model variability. By 2100, these anthropogenic trends will also be larger than intermodel uncertainty when global mean thermosteric sea level rise and/or melting contributions from land ice are considered along with dynamic sea level changes. Furthermore, we discuss projections of future coastal sea level from the perspective of global climate models as well as from downscaled efforts based on regional climate models. Much knowledge and understanding has been achieved in the last decade from intermodel experiments and studies of sea level process-based model; here, the prospects for improving coastal sea level and reducing sea level uncertainty are discussed.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agnew DC (1992) The time-domain behavior of power-law noises. Geophys Res Lett 19(4):333–336. https://doi.org/10.1029/91GL02832
Ballu V, Bouin MN, Siméoni P, Crawford WC, Calmant S, Boré JM, Kanas T, Pelletier B (2011) Comparing the role of absolute sea-level rise and vertical tectonic motions in coastal flooding, Torres Islands (Vanuatu). Proc Natl Acad Sci 108:13019–13022. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1102842108
Barbosa SM, Fernandes MJ, Silva ME (2006) Long-range dependence in North Atlantic sea level. Phys A 371:725–731. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2006.03.046
Barbosa SM, Silva ME, Fernandes MJ (2008) Time series analysis of sea-level records: characterising long-term variability. In: Donner RV, Barbosa SM (ed) Nonlinear time series analysis in the geosciences. Springer, Berlin, pp 157–173. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78938-3_8
Becker M, Karpytchev M, Lennartz-Sassinek S (2014) Long-term sea level trends: natural or anthropogenic? Geophys Res Lett 41:5571. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl061027
Becker M, Karpytchev M, Marcos M, Jevrejeva S, Lennartz-Sassinek S (2016) Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? Geophys Res Lett 43:5176. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl068971
Beretta A, Roman HE, Raicich F, Crisciani F (2005) Long-time correlations of sea-level and local atmospheric pressure fluctuations at Trieste. Phys A 347:695–703
Bilbao RA, Gregory JM, Bouttes N (2015) Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs. Clim Dyn 45:2647
Bingham RJ, Hughes CW (2012) Local diagnostics to estimate density-induced sea level variations over topography and along coastlines. J Geophys Res 117(C1):C01013. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007276
Bjørk AA et al (2012) An aerial view of 80 years of climate-related glacier fluctuations in southeast Greenland. Nat Geosci 5:427. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo148110.1038/ngeo1481
Bordbar MH, Martin T, Latif M, Park W (2015) Effects of long-term variability on projections of twenty-first century dynamic sea level. Nat Clim Change 5:343–347. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2569
Bos MS, Williams SDP, Araújo IB, Bastos L (2013) The effect of temporal correlated noise on the sea level rate and acceleration uncertainty. Geophys J Int 196:1423–1430. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt481
Bouttes N, Gregory JM (2014) Attribution of the spatial pattern of CO2-forced sea level change to ocean surface flux changes. Environ Res Lett 9:034004. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034004
Calafat FM, Chambers DP, Tsimplis MN (2012) Mechanisms of decadal sea level variability in the eastern North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea. J Geophys Res Oceans 117:C9
Calafat FM, Wahl T, Lindsten F, Williams J, Frajka-Williams E (2018) Coherent modulation of the sea-level annual cycle in the United States by Atlantic Rossby waves. Nat Commun 9(1):2571
Carson M, Köhl A, Stammer D (2015) The impact of regional multidecadal and century-scale internal climate variability on sea level trends in CMIP5 models. J Clim 28:853–861. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00359.1
Carson M, Köhl A, Stammer D, Slangen ABA, Katsman CA, van de Wal RSW, Church J, White N (2016) Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century. Clim Change 134:269–281. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1520-1
Cazenave A et al (2018) Global sea-level budget 1993–present. Earth Syst Sci Data 10:1551–1590. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018
Church JA, White NJ, Konikow LF, Domingues CM, Cogley JG, Rignot E, Gregory JM, van den Broeke MR, Monaghan AJ, Velicogna I (2011) Revisiting the Earth’s sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008. Geophys Res Lett 38:L18601. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048794
Church JA, Clark PU, Cazenave A, Gregory JM, Jevrejeva S, Levermann A, Merrifield MA, Milne GA, Nerem RS, Nunn PD, Payne AJ, Pfeffer WT, Stammer D, Unnikrishnan AS (2013) Sea level change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Chylek P, Box JE, Lesins G (2004) Global warming and the Greenland ice sheet. Clim Change 63:201–221. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000018509.74228.03
Cipollini P, Calafat FM, Jevrejeva S, Melet A, Prandi P (2017) Monitoring sea level in the coastal zone with satellite altimetry and tide gauges. Surv Geophys 38:33–57
Dangendorf S, Calafat FM, Arns A, Wahl T, Haigh ID, Jensen J (2014a) Mean sea level variability in the North Sea: processes and implications. J Geophys Res Oceans 119(10):50
Dangendorf S, Rybski D, Mudersbach C, Müller A, Kaufmann E, Zorita E, Jensen J (2014b) Evidence for long-term memory in sea level. Geophys Res Lett 41:5530–5537. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060538/
Dangendorf S, Marcos M, Müller A, Zorita E, Riva R, Berk K, Jensen J (2015) Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise. Nat Commun 6:7849. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8849
Deng X, Griffin DA, Ridgway K, Church JA, Featherstone WE, White NJ, Cahill M (2011) Satellite altimetry for geodetic, oceanographic, and climate studies in the Australian region. In: Vignudelli S, Kostianoy AG, Cipollini P, Benveniste J (eds) Coastal altimetry. Springer, Berlin, pp 473–508
Di Lorenzo E et al (2008) North Pacific Gyre oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change. Geophys Res Lett 35:L08607. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032838
Dieng HB, Cazenave A, Meyssignac B, Ablain M (2017) New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach. Geophys Res Lett 44:3744–3751. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073308
Domingues CM, Church JA, White NJ, Gleckler PJ, Wijffels SE, Barker PM, Dunn JR (2008) Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. Nature 453:1090–1093. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07080
Douglas BC (1991) Global sea level rise. J Geophys Res 96(C4):6981–6992. https://doi.org/10.1029/91JC00064
Durand F, Piecuch CG, Becker M, Papa F, Raju SV, Khan JU, Ponte RM (2019) Impact of continental freshwater runoff on coastal sea level. Surv Geophys 1:1
Emery KO, Aubrey DG (1991) Sea levels, land levels, and tide gauges. Springer, New York
Eyring V, Bony S, Meehl GA, Senior CA, Stevens B, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2016) Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci Model Dev 9:1937–1958. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
Ezer T, Atkinson LP, Corlett WB, Blanco JL (2013) Gulf Stream’s induced sea level rise and variability along the US mid-Atlantic coast. J Geophys Res Oceans 118(2):685–697
Fasullo JT, Nerem RS (2018) Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate models and implications for the future. Proc Natl Acad Sci 115(51):12944–12949. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1813233115
Fasullo JT, Boening C, Landerer FW, Nerem RS (2013) Australia’s unique influence on global sea level in 2010–2011. Geophys Res Lett 40:4368–4373. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50834
Fraser R, Palmer M, Roberts C, Wilson C, Copsey D, Zanna L (2019) Investigating the predictability of North Atlantic sea surface height. Clim Dyn 53:2175. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04814-0
Garuba OA, Klinger BA (2018) The role of individual surface flux components in the passive and active ocean heat uptake. J Clim 31:6157–6173. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0452.1
Greatbatch RJ (1994) A note on the representation of steric sea level in models that conserve volume rather than mass. J Geophys Res 99(C6):12767–12771. https://doi.org/10.1029/94JC00847
Gregory JM, Church JA, Boer GJ, Dixon KW, Flato GM, Jackett DR, Lowe JA, O’Farrell SP, Roeckner E, Russell GL, Stouffer RJ, Winton M (2001) Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100. Clim Dyn 18:225–240. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820100180
Gregory JM, White NJ, Church JA, Bierkens MF, Box JE, van den Broeke MR, Cogley JG, Fettweis X, Hanna E, Huybrechts P, Konikow LF, Leclercq PW, Marzeion B, Oerlemans J, Tamisiea ME, Wada Y, Wake LM, van de Wal RS (2013) Twentieth-century global-mean sea level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts? J Clim 26:4476–4499. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1
Gregory JM et al (2016) The flux-anomaly-forced model intercomparison project (FAFMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing. Geosci Model Dev 9:3993–4017. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016
Gregory JM et al (2019) Concepts and terminology for sea level: mean, variability and change, both local and global. Surv Geophys. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z
Haigh ID, Wahl T, Rohling EJ, Price RM, Pattiaratchi CB, Calafat FM, Dangendorf S (2014) Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise. Nat Commun 5:3635. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4635
Hamlington BD, Fasullo JT, Nerem RS, Kim K-Y, Landerer FW (2019) Uncovering the pattern of forced sea level rise in the satellite altimeter record. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081386
Han W, Stammer D, Meehl GA, Hu A, Sienz F, Zhang L (2018) Multi-decadal trend and decadal variability of the regional sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1960s: roles of climate modes and external forcing. Climate 6:51. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020051
Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:1095–1108. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1
Hu A, Bates SC (2018) Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise. Nat Commun 9:1068. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03474-8
Hu A, Deser C (2013) Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 40:2768–2772. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50531
Hu A, Meehl GA, Stammer D, Han W, Strand WG (2017) Role of perturbing ocean initial condition in simulated regional sea level change. Water 9(6):401. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9060401
Huber MB, Zanna L (2017) Drivers of uncertainty in simulated ocean circulation and heat uptake. Geophys Res Lett 44:1402–1413. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071587
Hughes CW, Williams SDP (2010) The color of sea level: importance of spatial variations in spectral shape for assessing the significance of trends. J Geophys Res 115:C10048. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006102
Hughes CW, Williams J, Blaker A, Coward A, Stepanov V (2018) A window on the deep ocean: the special value of ocean bottom pressure for monitoring the large-scale, deep-ocean circulation. Prog Oceanogr 161:19–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2018.01.011
IPCC (2014) Summary for policymakers. In: Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y, Farahani E, Kadner S, Seyboth K, Adler A, Baum I, Brunner S, Eickemeier P, Kriemann B, Savolainen J, Schlömer S, von Stechow C, Zwickel T, Minx JC (eds) Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change. Contribution of working group III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Johnson HL, Marshall DP (2002) A theory for the surface Atlantic response to thermohaline variability. J Phys Oceanogr 32:1121–1132. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(2002)032%3c1121:ATFTSA%3e2.0.CO;2
Kuhlbrodt T, Gregory J (2012) Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change. Geophys Res Lett 39(18):L18608. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052952
Landerer FW, Gleckler PJ, Lee T (2014) Evaluation of CMIP5 dynamic sea surface height multi-model simulations against satellite observations. Clim Dyn 43:1271–1283. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1939-x
Le Bars D (2018) Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors. Earth’s Future 6:1275. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ef000849
Lennartz S, Bunde A (2009) Trend evaluation in records with long-term memory: application to global warming. Geophys Res Lett 36:L16706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039516
Little CM, Horton RM, Kopp RR, Oppenheimer M, Yip S (2015) Uncertainty in twenty-first-century CMIP5 sea level projections. J Clim 28:838–852. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00453.1
Liu Z-J, Minobe S, Sasaki YN, Terada M (2016) Dynamical downscaling of future sea-level change in the western North Pacific using ROMS. J Oceanogr 72:905–922. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-016-0390-0
Llovel W, Penduff T, Meyssignac B, Molines J-M, Terray L, Bessières L, Barnier B (2018) Contributions of atmospheric forcing and chaotic ocean variability to regional sea level trends over 1993–2015. Geophys Res Lett 45:13405–13413. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080838
Lyu K, Zhang X, Church JA, Slangen ABA, Hu J (2014) Time of emergence for regional sea-level change. Nat Clim Change 4:1006–1010. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2397
Lyu K, Zhang X, Church JA, Hu J (2015) Quantifying internally generated and externally forced climate signals at regional scales in CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett 42:9394–9403. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065508
Lyu K, Zhang X, Church JA, Hu J (2016) Evaluation of the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature and sea level in the Pacific in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Int J Climatol 36(11):3723–3740
Marcos M, Amores A (2014) Quantifying anthropogenic and natural contributions to thermosteric sea level rise. Geophys Res Lett 41:2502–2507. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059766
Marcos M, Marzeion B, Dangendorf S, Slangen ABA, Palanisamy H, Fenoglio-Marc L (2017) Internal variability versus anthropogenic forcing on sea level and its components. Surv Geophys 38:329–348
Marshall DP, Zanna L (2014) A conceptual model of ocean heat uptake under climate change. J Clim 27(22):8444–8465
Marzeion B, Cogley JG, Richter K, Parkes D (2014) Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes. Science 345:919–921. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1254702
McCarthy GD, Haigh ID, Hirschi JJM, Grist JP, Smeed DA (2015) Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations. Nature 521(7553):508
Melet A, Meyssignac B (2015) Explaining the spread in global mean thermosteric sea level rise in CMIP5 climate models. J. Climate 28:9918–9940. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0200.1
Meyssignac B, Salasy Melia D, Becker M, Llovel W, Cazenave A (2012) Tropical Pacific spatial trend patterns in observed sea level: internal variability and/or anthropogenic signature? Clim Past 8:787–802. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-787-2012
Meyssignac B, Slangen ABA, Melet A, Church JA, Fettweis X, Marzeion B, Agosta C, Ligtenberg SRM, Spada G, Richter K, Palmer MD, Roberts CD, Champollion N (2017) Evaluating model simulations of twentieth-century sea-level rise. Part II: regional sea-level changes. J. Clim 30:8565–8593. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0112.1
Minobe S, Terada M, Qiu B, Schneider N (2017) Western boundary sea level: a theory, rule of thumb, and application to climate models. J Phys Oceanogr 47:957–977. https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-16-0144.1
Monselesan DP, O’Kane TJ, Risbey JS, Church JA (2015) Internal climate memory in observations and models. Geophys Res Lett 42:1232–1242. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062765
Moore JC, Grinsted A, Zwinger T, Jevrejeva S (2013) Semiempirical and process-based global sea level projections. Rev Geophys 51(3):484–522. https://doi.org/10.1002/rog.20015
Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823
Northrop PJ, Chandler RE (2014) Quantifying sources of uncertainty in projections of future climate. J Clim 27:8793–8808. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00265.1
Penduff T, Juza M, Brodeau L, Smith GC, Barnier B, Molines J-M, Tréguier A-M, Madec G (2010) Impact of global ocean model resolution on sea-level variability with emphasis on interannual time scales. Ocean Sci. 6:269–284. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-6-269-2010
Perrette M, Landerer F, Riva R, Frieler K, Meinshausen M (2013) A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties. Earth Syst Dyn 4:11–29. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013
Peyser C, Yin J (2017) Interannual and decadal variability in tropical Pacific Sea Level. Water 9(6):402
Preisendorfer RW (1988) Principal component analysis in meteorology and oceanography. Elsevier, Amsterdam, p 425
Raucoules D, Le Cozannet G, Wöppelmann G, De Michele M, Gravelle M, Daag A, Marcos M (2013) High nonlinear urban ground motion in Manila (Philippines) from 1993 to 2010 observed by DInSAR: implications for sea-level measurement. Remote Sens Environ 139:386–397
Richter K, Marzeion B (2014) Earliest local emergence of forced dynamic and steric sea-level trends in climate models. Environ Res Lett 9:114009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114009
Richter K, Nilsen JE, Drange H (2012) Contributions to sea level variability along the Norwegian coast for 1960–2010. J Geophys Res Oceans 117(C5):1
Richter K, Øie Nilsen JE, Raj RP, Bethke I, Johannessen JA, Slangen AB, Marzeion B (2017a) Northern North Atlantic sea level in CMIP5 climate models: evaluation of mean state, variability, and trends against altimetric observations. J Clim 30(23):9383–9398
Richter K, Marzeion B, Riva R (2017b) The effect of spatial averaging and glacier melt on detecting a forced signal in regional sea level. Environ Res Lett 12(3):034004
Saenko OA, Yang D, Gregory JM, Spence P, Myers PG (2015) Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content. J Geophys Res Oceans 120:5749–5765. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC010928
Saenko OA, Yang D, Gregory JM (2018) Impact of mesoscale eddy transfer on heat uptake in an eddy-parameterizing ocean model. J Clim 31:8589–8606. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0186.1
Santamaría-Gómez A, Gravelle M, Wöppemann G (2014) Long-term vertical land motion from double-differenced tide gauge and satellite altimetry data. J Geodyn 88:207–222. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-013-0677-5
Sasaki YN, Minobe S, Miura Y (2014) Decadal sea-level variability along the coast of Japan in response to ocean circulation changes. J Geophys Res Oceans 119(1):266–275
Sérazin G, Meyssignac B, Penduff T, Terray L, Barnier B, Molines JM (2016) Quantifying uncertainties on regional sea level change induced by multidecadal intrinsic oceanic variability. Geophys Res Lett 43:8151–8159
Slangen ABA, Carson M, Katsman C, van de Wal R, Koehl A, Vermeersen L, Stammer D (2014a) Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes. Clim Change 124:317–332. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9
Slangen ABA, Church JA, Zhang X, Monselesan D (2014b) Detection and attribution of global mean thermosteric sea-level change. Geophys Res Lett 41:5951–5959. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061356
Slangen ABA, Church JA, Agosta C, Fettweis X, Marzeion B, Richter K (2016) Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970. Nat Clim Change 6:701–705. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2991
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2009) A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. PCMDI Technical Report, 33 pp. Available online at http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/docs/Taylor_CMIP5_design.pdf
Vinogradov SV, Ponte RM (2011) Low-frequency variability in coastal sea level from tide gauges and altimetry. J Geophys Res Oceans 116(C7):1
Von Storch H, Zwiers FW (2001) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 496
Watson PJ (2018) How well do AR5 sea surface-height model projections match observational rates of sea-level rise at the regional scale? J Mar Sci Eng 6:11. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6010011
White NJ, Church JA, Gregory JM (2005) Coastal and global averaged sea level rise for 1950 to 2000. Geophys Res Lett 32:L01601. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021391
Williams J, Hughes CW (2013) The coherence of small island sea level with the wider ocean: a model study. Ocean Sci 9:111–119
Wise A, Hughes CW, Polton J (2018) Bathymetric influence on the coastal sea level response to ocean gyres at western boundaries. J Phys Oceanogr 48:2949
Wöppelmann G, Marcos M (2016) Vertical land motion as a key to understanding sea level change and variability. Rev Geophys 54:64–92. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000502
Yin J (2012) Century to multi-century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett 39:L17709. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052947
Yin J, Goddard PB (2013) Oceanic control of sea level rise patterns along the East Coast of the United States. Geophys Res Lett 40:5514–5520. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057992
Yin J, Schlesinger ME, Stouffer RJ (2009) Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States. Nat Geosci 2(4):262
Yin J, Griffies SM, Stouffer RJ (2010) Spatial variability of sea-level rise in twenty-first century projections. J Clim 23:4585–4607. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3533.1
Yip S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Hawkins E (2011) A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions. J Clim 24:4634–4643. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4085.1
Zanna L, Brankart JM, Huber M, Leroux S, Penduff T, Williams PD (2018) Uncertainty and scale interactions in Ocean Ensembles: from seasonal forecasts to multi-decadal climate predictions. QJRMS. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3397
Zanna L, Khatiwala S, Gregory J, Ison J, Heimbach P (2019) Global reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage and transport. Proc Natl Acad Sci 116(4):1126–1131. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1808838115
Zhang X, Church JA (2012) Sea level trends, interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 39:L21701. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053240
Zhang X, Oke P, Feng M, Chamberlain MA, Church JA, Monselesan D, Sun C, Matear RJ, Fiedler R (2016) A near-global eddy-resolving OGCM for climate studies. Geosci Model Dev Discuss 2016:1–52. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-17
Zhang X, Church JA, Monselesan D, McInnes KL (2017) Sea level projections for the Australian region in the 21st century. Geophys Res Lett 44:8481–8491. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074176
Acknowledgements
Thanks to the ISSI for hosting the Workshop on Coastal Sea Level from which this paper was conceived and to Xuebin Zhang for his help in producing Fig. 4. And thanks to Chris Little for his comments on an early version of the manuscript. MC was supported in part through the DFG funded CliSAP Excellence Cluster of the University of Hamburg, through the BMBF (Federal Ministry of Education and Science) Project RACE and through a DFG-funded special research effort on regional sea level (SPP1889). KR is funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FP302560). KL is funded by CSHOR, a joint research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research between QNLM and CSIRO. CMD is supported by Australian Research Council FT130101532 and DP160103130. LZ is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R000727/1 and NE/P019218/1) and thanks to Princeton AOS and GFDL visiting faculty program for additional support. MB is supported by the French National Centre for Space Studies (CNES) TOSCA program.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Carson, M., Lyu, K., Richter, K. et al. Climate Model Uncertainty and Trend Detection in Regional Sea Level Projections: A Review. Surv Geophys 40, 1631–1653 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09559-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09559-3