The aim of this paper is to contribute to the vivid political discussion on the consequences of the Russian agricultural import ban on the German export market by quantifying export losses that German agri‐food exporters encountered on the Russian market due to the agricultural import ban of 2014. A gravity‐type approach is used to measure the sanction effect in a panel of German agri‐food exports covering the period from January 1999 to June 2018. The ban effect is disentangled from a sequence of different geopolitically‐ and economically driven episodes. Once macroeconomic developments of the Russian economy as well as individual stages of decreasing trade cooperation in the preban period are accounted for, the import ban reduced German agri‐food exports significantly but was not the major cause. Therefore, a simple elimination of the ban will not be enough to restore trade to the presanctions level.

中文翻译：

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制裁价格：德国因俄罗斯农业禁令造成的出口损失的实证分析

本文的目的是通过量化德国农产品出口商由于2014年农业进口禁令在俄罗斯市场上遭受的出口损失，为关于俄罗斯农业进口禁令对德国出口市场的后果的生动政治讨论做出贡献。 。重力式方法用于衡量一组涵盖1999年1月至2018年6月的德国农产品出口的制裁效果，该禁令效果与一系列不同的地缘政治和经济驱动事件没有关系。一旦考虑到俄罗斯经济的宏观经济发展以及在禁令前贸易合作减少的各个阶段，就可以通过进口禁令大大减少德国的农产品出口，但这并不是主要原因。因此，