SPECIAL ISSUE ARTICLE
The price of sanctions: An empirical analysis of German export losses due to the Russian agricultural ban
Svetlana Fedoseeva,
Roland Herrmann,
Corresponding Author
Svetlana Fedoseeva
Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Correspondence
Svetlana Fedoseeva, University of Bonn, Nussallee 21, 53115, Bonn, Germany.
Email: svetlana.fedoseeva@ilr.uni-bonn.de
Search for more papers by this authorRoland Herrmann
Institute for Agricultural Policy and Market Research, University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany
Search for more papers by this authorSvetlana Fedoseeva,
Roland Herrmann,
Corresponding Author
Svetlana Fedoseeva
Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Correspondence
Svetlana Fedoseeva, University of Bonn, Nussallee 21, 53115, Bonn, Germany.
Email: svetlana.fedoseeva@ilr.uni-bonn.de
Search for more papers by this authorRoland Herrmann
Institute for Agricultural Policy and Market Research, University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
enThe aim of this paper is to contribute to the vivid political discussion on the consequences of the Russian agricultural import ban on the German export market by quantifying export losses that German agri-food exporters encountered on the Russian market due to the agricultural import ban of 2014. A gravity-type approach is used to measure the sanction effect in a panel of German agri-food exports covering the period from January 1999 to June 2018. The ban effect is disentangled from a sequence of different geopolitically- and economically driven episodes. Once macroeconomic developments of the Russian economy as well as individual stages of decreasing trade cooperation in the preban period are accounted for, the import ban reduced German agri-food exports significantly but was not the major cause. Therefore, a simple elimination of the ban will not be enough to restore trade to the presanctions level.
Trad
frL'objectif de ce document est de contribuer à la discussion politique animée sur les conséquences de l'embargo russe de 2014 sur les exportations de produits agricoles allemand, en quantifiant les pertes qui y sont associées. Une approche de type modèle de gravité est utilisée pour mesurer l'effet de sanction chez un groupe d'exportations agroalimentaires allemandes couvrant la période allant de janvier 1999 à juin 2018. L'effet de l'embargo est dissocié d'une série d'épisodes géopolitiques et économiques. Une fois que l'on a pris en compte l’évolution macroéconomique de l’économie russe et les différents stades de la réduction de la coopération commerciale au cours de la période qui a précédé l'embargo, l'interdiction d'importer a réduit considérablement les exportations agroalimentaires allemandes, sans toutefois en être la cause principale. Par conséquent, une simple élimination de l'interdiction ne suffira pas pour ramener le commerce au niveau d'avant les sanctions.
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