Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict species occurrence and to seek insight into the factors behind observed spatial patterns in occurrence, and thus can be a valuable tool in species conservation. In this study, we used MaxEnt software to explain the occurrence of a protected forest-dwelling species, the Siberian flying squirrel. We produce occurrence maps covering the main distribution area for the species in the European Union. Using an exceptionally extensive presence-absence dataset collected with a standardized method, we evaluated the relative role of predation pressure, climate, and amount of habitat affecting flying squirrel occurrence. We found that regional variation in mean winter temperature had relatively large predictive power for flying squirrel occurrence. In addition, the regional abundance of flying squirrels was partly explained by differences in predation pressure. The results also support the conclusion that areas with older forests and nearby agricultural areas are optimal for the species. Our study shows that multiple factors affect the species' occurrence in large spatial scales. We also conclude that climate is having a large effect on species occurrence, and thus the changing climate has to be taken into account in conservation planning. Our results help conservation managers in targeting surveys and protection measures on various spatial scales, and decision makers in focusing on the factors that drive the species' occurrence. Our results also indicate that we would need additional tools and measures in the EU for achieving a favourable conservation status of those species that occur in commercial forests.

中文翻译：

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通过预测模型促进物种保护：栖息地、捕食者和气候对西伯利亚飞鼠发生的影响

摘要 物种分布模型（SDMs）可用于预测物种发生并深入了解观察到的空间模式背后的因素，因此可以成为物种保护的宝贵工具。在这项研究中，我们使用 MaxEnt 软件来解释一种受保护的森林栖息物种——西伯利亚飞鼠的出现。我们制作了覆盖欧盟物种主要分布区域的发生地图。使用以标准化方法收集的异常广泛的存在-不存在数据集，我们评估了捕食压力、气候和栖息地数量对飞鼠发生的相对作用。我们发现冬季平均气温的区域变化对飞鼠的发生具有较大的预测能力。此外，捕食压力的差异部分解释了该地区飞鼠的丰富程度。结果还支持这样的结论，即森林较老的地区和附近的农业区最适合该物种。我们的研究表明，多种因素影响该物种在大空间尺度上的发生。我们还得出结论，气候对物种的发生有很大影响，因此在保护规划中必须考虑到气候变化。我们的结果有助于保护管理者针对不同空间尺度的调查和保护措施，以及决策者关注推动物种发生的因素。