BACKGROUND It was unclear whether an increased number of common nevi (moles) predicts melanoma death. OBJECTIVE We prospectively examined the association between number of common nevi and risk of melanoma death. METHODS Our study used data from the Nurses' Health Study (n = 77,288 women) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (n = 32,455 men). In 1986, participants were asked about the number of moles they had with a ≥3-mm diameter on the upper extremity, and we stratified their answers into 3 categories (none, 1-2, or ≥3) on the basis of data distribution. RESULTS During follow-up (1986-2012), 2452 melanoma cases were pathologically confirmed; among these, we identified 196 deaths due to melanoma. Increased number of nevi was associated with melanoma death; the hazard ratio (HR) for ≥3 nevi compared with no nevi was 2.49 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.50-4.12) for women and 3.97 (95% CI 2.54-6.22) for men. Among melanoma cases, increased number of nevi was associated with melanoma death in men (≥3 nevi, HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.17-3.05) but not in women. Similarly, the number of nevi was positively associated with Breslow thickness in men only (Ptrend = .01). LIMITATIONS This is an epidemiologic study without examination into mechanisms. CONCLUSION Increased number of cutaneous nevi was significantly associated with melanoma death. High nevus count might serve as an independent prognostic factor to predict the risk of melanoma death particularly among male melanoma patients.

中文翻译：

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女性和男性的皮肤痣和黑色素瘤死亡风险：一项前瞻性研究。


背景尚不清楚常见痣（痣）数量的增加是否预示着黑色素瘤死亡。目的 我们前瞻性地研究了常见痣数量与黑色素瘤死亡风险之间的关联。方法 我们的研究使用了护士健康研究（n = 77,288 名女性）和卫生专业人员随访研究（n = 32,455 名男性）的数据。 1986年，参与者被问及上肢直径≥3毫米的痣的数量，我们根据数据分布将他们的答案分为3类（无、1-2或≥3） 。结果 随访期间（1986-2012年），经病理证实的黑色素瘤病例2452例；其中，我们确定了 196 人死于黑色素瘤。痣数量的增加与黑色素瘤死亡有关；与无痣相比，≥3 个痣的风险比 (HR) 对于女性为 2.49（95% 置信区间 [CI] 1.50-4.12），对于男性为 3.97（95% CI 2.54-6.22）。在黑色素瘤病例中，男性痣数量增加与黑色素瘤死亡相关（≥3 个痣，HR 1.89，95% CI 1.17-3.05），但女性则不然。同样，仅男性的痣数量与 Breslow 厚度呈正相关 (Ptrend = .01)。局限性 这是一项流行病学研究，未检查机制。结论 皮肤痣数量的增加与黑色素瘤死亡显着相关。高痣计数可能作为预测黑色素瘤死亡风险的独立预后因素，尤其是男性黑色素瘤患者。