This work presents snapshot simulations of the late 20th and late 21st century Antarctic climate under the RCP8.5 scenario carried out with an empirically bias‐corrected global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), forced with bias‐corrected sea‐surface temperatures and sea ice and run with about 100‐km resolution over Antarctica. The bias correction substantially improves the simulated mean late 20th century climate. The simulated atmospheric circulation of the bias‐corrected model compares very favorably to the best available AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)‐type climate models. The simulated interannual circulation variability is improved by the bias correction. Depending on the metric, a slight improvement or degradation is found in the simulated variability on synoptic timescales. The simulated climate change over the 21st century is broadly similar in the corrected and uncorrected versions of the atmospheric model, and atmospheric circulation patterns are not geographically “pinned” by the applied bias correction. These results suggest that the method presented here can be used for bias‐corrected climate projections. Finally, the authors discuss different possible choices in terms of the place of bias corrections and other intermediate steps in the modeling chain leading from global coupled climate simulations to impact assessment.

中文翻译：

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扩展网格AGCM对南极区域气候预测的经验运行时偏差校正

这项工作提供了RCP8.5情景下20世纪末和21世纪末的南极气候的快照模拟，该实验是通过经验偏差校正的全球大气总环流模型（AGCM）进行的，该模型由偏差校正的海表温度和海冰强迫进行并以约100公里的分辨率在南极上空运行。偏差校正极大地改善了20世纪后期的模拟平均气候。偏差校正模型的模拟大气环流与最佳可用的AMIP（大气模型比对项目）类型的气候模型相比非常有利。通过偏差校正可以改善模拟的年际循环变化。根据度量，在天气时间表上模拟的可变性中发现略有改善或降低。在校正和未校正的大气模型版本中，21世纪模拟的气候变化在很大程度上相似，并且大气环流模式在地理上不会受到所应用的偏差校正的“钉住”。这些结果表明，此处介绍的方法可用于偏差校正的气候预测。最后，作者讨论了偏差校正的位置以及建模链中其他中间步骤（从全球耦合气候模拟到影响评估）的不同可能选择。这些结果表明，此处介绍的方法可用于偏差校正的气候预测。最后，作者讨论了偏差校正的位置以及建模链中其他中间步骤（从全球耦合气候模拟到影响评估）的不同可能选择。这些结果表明，此处介绍的方法可用于偏差校正的气候预测。最后，作者讨论了偏差校正的位置以及建模链中其他中间步骤（从全球耦合气候模拟到影响评估）的不同可能选择。