BACKGROUND Geriatric health charts that are similar to pediatric growth charts could facilitate monitoring health changes and predicting care needs in older adults. We aimed to validate an existing composite score (Health Assessment Tool [HAT]) and provide provisional age-specific reference curves for the general older population. METHODS Data came from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (N = 3,363 participants aged 60 years and over examined clinically at baseline and 3 years later). HAT was validated by exploring its relationship with health indicators (logistic regression) and comparing its ability to predict care consumption with that of two of its components, morbidity and disability (receiver operating characteristic curve areas). A flowchart was developed to obtain individual-level HAT scores (nominal response method). Sex-specific health charts were derived by graphing seven percentile curves of age-related HAT change (logistic quantile regression). RESULTS HAT scores above the age- and sex-specific median were related to good performance in chair-stand tests (odds ratio [OR] = 2.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.07-3.31), balance and grip tests (interaction balance grip test, OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.05-1.25), and good self-rated health (OR = 2.19, 95% CI: 1.77-2.71). Receiver operating characteristic curve areas (HAT vs number of chronic disorders) were formal care, 0.76 versus 0.58 (p value < .001); informal care, 0.74 versus 0.59 (p value < .001); hospital admission, 0.70 versus 0.66 (p value < .001); primary care visits, 0.71 versus 0.69 (p value > .05); and specialty care visits, 0.62 versus 0.65 (p value < .001). HAT consistently predicted medical and social care service use better than disability. CONCLUSIONS HAT is a valid tool that predicts care consumption well and could be useful in developing geriatric health charts to better monitor health changes in older populations.

中文翻译：

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用于个人评估和预测护理需求的老年健康图表：基于人群的前瞻性研究。

背景技术与小儿生长图相似的老年健康图可以促进监测健康变化并预测老年人的护理需求。我们旨在验证现有的综合评分（健康评估工具[HAT]），并为一般老年人群提供临时的特定年龄参考曲线。方法数据来自瑞典国家医院关于Kungsholmen的衰老和护理的研究（N = 3363名年龄在60岁及以上的参与者，在基线及3年后进行了临床检查）。通过探索HAT与健康指标之间的关系（逻辑回归）并比较其预测护理消耗的能力与发病率和残障率（接收者操作特征曲线区域）这两个组成部分的能力，对HAT进行了验证。开发了流程图以获得个人级别的HAT分数（名义响应方法）。通过绘制与年龄相关的HAT变化的七个百分点曲线（逻辑分位数回归），得出针对性别的健康图表。结果HAT得分高于特定年龄和性别的中位数，与椅子站立测试（优势比[OR] = 2.62、95％置信区间[CI]：2.07-3.31），平衡和抓地力测试（交互作用）的良好表现相关。平衡抓地力测试，OR = 1.15，95％CI：1.05-1.25）和良好的自我评估健康状况（OR = 2.19，95％CI：1.77-2.71）。接受者的操作特征曲线面积（HAT与慢性疾病的数量）为正规护理，分别为0.76和0.58（p值<0.001）；非正规护理，0.74比0.59（p值<.001）；住院率0.70 vs 0.66（p值<.001）; 初级保健访视率分别为0.71和0.69（p值> .05）；和专科就诊，分别为0.62和0.65（p值<.001）。HAT始终预测医疗和社会护理服务的使用要好于残疾。结论HAT是一个有效的工具，可以很好地预测护理消费量，并且在开发老年人健康图表以更好地监视老年人口的健康变化方面可能很有用。