“Everything changes and nothing stands still” (Heraclitus). Here we review three major improvements to freshwater aquatic ecosystem models — and ecological models in general — as water quality scenario analysis tools towards a sustainable future. To tackle the rapid and deeply connected dynamics characteristic of the Anthropocene, we argue for the inclusion of eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics. These dynamics arise from adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change and act at different integration levels and different time scales. We provide reasons and means to incorporate each improvement into aquatic ecosystem models. Throughout this study we refer to Lake Victoria as a microcosm of the evolving novel social-ecological systems of the Anthropocene. The Lake Victoria case clearly shows how interlinked eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics are, and demonstrates the need for transdisciplinary research approaches towards global sustainability.

“一切都变了，什么也没有停滞不前”（赫拉克利特）。在这里，我们将对淡水水生生态系统模型（以及一般而言的生态模型）进行三项重大改进，以作为实现可持续未来的水质情景分析工具。为了解决人类世间迅速而紧密联系的动力学特征，我们主张纳入生态进化，新型生态系统和社会生态动力学。这些动力来自生物体和生态系统对全球环境变化的适应性反应，并在不同的整合水平和不同的时间尺度上发挥作用。我们提供了将每种改进纳入水生生态系统模型的理由和方法。在整个研究中，我们将维多利亚湖视为人类世不断发展的新型社会生态系统的缩影。维多利亚湖的案例清楚地表明了生态进化是如何相互联系的，