Abstract Hazard assessment is one of the key elements to be included in any coastal risk assessment framework. Characterizing storm-induced erosion and inundation involves the assessment of the coastal response under the forcing of a stochastic source (the storm), acting on a variable morphology (the beach) and inducing some damages. Hazard assessment under any present or future scenario will be affected by uncertainties either associated to the models used, the definition of climate conditions, and the characterization of the coastal morphology. In this context, Bayesian Networks (BN) can effectively address the problem as they allow accounting for these uncertainties while characterizing stochastically the system response and giving insight on the dependencies among involved variables. In this work, a BN-based methodology for storm-induced hazard assessment at regional scale is presented. The methodology is able to account for uncertainties associated with included models and forcing conditions through Monte-Carlo simulations. It produces distributions of erosion and inundation hazards under given scenarios allowing conditioned hazard assessments as a function of storm and morphological variables. Results are compared to hazards evaluated using an existing Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF), at two locations of the Catalan coast already identified as hotspots for storm-induced erosion and/or flooding.

中文翻译：

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用于区域尺度沿海灾害评估的贝叶斯网络方法：BN-CRAF

摘要 危害评估是任何沿海风险评估框架中包含的关键要素之一。表征风暴引起的侵蚀和淹没涉及评估在随机源（风暴）强迫下的沿海响应，作用于可变形态（海滩）并引起一些损害。任何当前或未来情景下的危害评估都将受到与所用模型、气候条件定义和沿海形态特征相关的不确定性的影响。在这种情况下，贝叶斯网络 (BN) 可以有效地解决这个问题，因为它们允许解释这些不确定性，同时随机表征系统响应并深入了解相关变量之间的依赖关系。在这项工作中，提出了一种基于 BN 的区域尺度风暴诱发灾害评估方法。该方法能够通过蒙特卡罗模拟解决与包含的模型和强迫条件相关的不确定性。它产生给定情景下侵蚀和淹没危害的分布，允许将条件危害评估作为风暴和形态变量的函数。结果与使用现有沿海风险评估框架 (CRAF) 评估的危害进行了比较，加泰罗尼亚海岸的两个地点已被确定为风暴引起的侵蚀和/或洪水的热点。它产生给定情景下侵蚀和淹没危害的分布，允许将条件危害评估作为风暴和形态变量的函数。结果与使用现有沿海风险评估框架 (CRAF) 评估的危害进行了比较，加泰罗尼亚海岸的两个地点已被确定为风暴引起的侵蚀和/或洪水的热点。它产生给定情景下侵蚀和淹没危害的分布，允许将条件危害评估作为风暴和形态变量的函数。结果与使用现有沿海风险评估框架 (CRAF) 评估的危害进行了比较，加泰罗尼亚海岸的两个地点已被确定为风暴引起的侵蚀和/或洪水的热点。