Abstract Desalination projects play a vital role in the water supply of coastal regions with scarce water resources. The risks associated with desalination projects are worth investigating, especially for large-scale projects. This paper presents the risk identification and evaluation processes of large-scale desalination projects. Two levels of risk indicators are identified and the first-level risks include water intake and outfall risk, processing risk, financial risk and circumstance risk. With the identified risk indicators, an integrated fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is introduced to conduct quantitative risk evaluations for large-scale desalination projects. Twenty experts in desalination-related fields are invited to vote to determine the weighting vectors for the FCE through the AHP. They also participate in deciding the membership matrixes in the FCE for three practical desalination projects. The evaluation results indicate that the overall risks of all the considered projects are at the “Very low” level. Finally, to diminish the potential risks, several instructions and recommendations are suggested that depend on the evaluation outcomes. It is expected that the current risk evaluation research will make remarkable contributions to the risk management and control of large-scale desalination projects and further promote the development of the desalination industry.

中文翻译：

---

基于综合模糊综合评价和层次分析法的大型海水淡化项目风险评价

摘要 海水淡化工程对沿海水资源稀缺地区的供水起着至关重要的作用。与海水淡化项目相关的风险值得研究，尤其是大型项目。本文介绍了大型海水淡化项目的风险识别和评估过程。确定了两个级别的风险指标，第一级风险包括进出水风险、加工风险、财务风险和环境风险。根据确定的风险指标，引入综合模糊综合评价（FCE）和层次分析法（AHP）方法对大型海水淡化项目进行定量风险评价。邀请海水淡化相关领域的 20 位专家投票通过 AHP 来确定 FCE 的权重向量。他们还参与决定 FCE 中三个实际海水淡化项目的成员矩阵。评估结果表明，所有考虑项目的总体风险都处于“非常低”水平。最后，为了减少潜在风险，根据评估结果提出了一些说明和建议。预计当前的风险评估研究将为大型海水淡化项目的风险管控做出显着贡献，进一步推动海水淡化行业的发展。根据评估结果提出了若干说明和建议。预计当前的风险评估研究将为大型海水淡化项目的风险管控做出显着贡献，进一步推动海水淡化行业的发展。根据评估结果提出了若干说明和建议。预计当前的风险评估研究将为大型海水淡化项目的风险管控做出显着贡献，进一步推动海水淡化行业的发展。