Abstract This study explores the impact of weather shocks on the investment decisions of farmers. We distinguish between the long-term effect of exposure to weather shocks, measured as past exposure to deviations in average rainfall levels, and the effect of weather-related shocks that have recently occurred. We examine how households cope with shocks in the short term, in terms of consumption smoothing and the depletion of liquid assets, and whether over the longer-term shock exposure impacts on household investment decisions and welfare. Our results show that households on average manage to smooth consumption in the face of recent shocks by depleting savings and borrowing. Over the longer-term, households that are exposed to shocks invest less in productive assets leading to lower consumption levels. Moreover, the investment strategies of these households do not appear to pay off once additional shocks occur later on.

中文翻译：

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冲击和农业投资决策

摘要 本研究探讨了天气冲击对农民投资决策的影响。我们区分了暴露于天气冲击的长期影响（衡量为过去暴露于平均降雨量水平偏差的情况）和最近发生的与天气相关的冲击的影响。我们研究了家庭如何在短期内应对冲击，包括消费平滑和流动资产枯竭，以及长期冲击风险是否会影响家庭投资决策和福利。我们的研究结果表明，在近期的冲击面前，家庭平均能够通过消耗储蓄和借贷来平稳消费。从长期来看，受到冲击的家庭对生产性资产的投资较少，从而导致消费水平下降。而且，