Land use/cover change (LUCC) in the Bohai Rim coastal zone has accelerated as a result of rampant economic development, which has directly caused many negative effects on ecosystem functions and services. Based on multi-temporal land use data (2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015), the benefit transfer method was used to assess the ecosystem service value (ESV) of the Bohai Rim coastal zone, and the impact of LUCC on ecosystem services was studied. Multi-scenario simulations for 2025 were conducted using the future land use simulation model. The result of the analysis showed that during the period from 2000 to 2015, the total ESV lost was 22.09 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 3.80%. The spatial distribution of the ESV showed a certain regularity, with obvious characteristics of a land-sea gradient change. As the distance from the coastline increased, the ESV per unit area gradually declined. Compared with those in 2015, the total ESVs of the socio-economic development scenario and the business-as-usual scenario in 2025 showed a declining trend, while they increased under the ecological protection priority scenario. Under the ecological protection priority scenario, regulating services and support services increased significantly, but those declined dramatically under the socio-economic development scenario. The patterns of LUCC are the main reasons for the decrease in ESV. This research provides a theoretical basis and support for the development and utilization of coastal space and the improvement of “ecological-economic-social” benefits; additionally, the results provide support for scientific decision-making services for the sustainable use of resources in the coastal zone and for the sustainable management of ecosystems.

经济发展迅猛，环渤海沿海地区的土地利用/土地覆被变化（LUCC）加速了，直接对生态系统功能和服务产生了许多负面影响。基于多时相土地利用数据（2000年，2005年，2010年和2015年），采用利益转移方法评估环渤海沿海地区的生态系统服务价值（ESV），并研究了LUCC对生态系统服务的影响。使用未来的土地利用模拟模型进行了2025年的多情景模拟。分析结果表明，2000年至2015年期间，ESV损失总额为220.9亿元人民币，下降了3.80％。ESV的空间分布具有一定的规律性，具有明显的陆海梯度变化特征。随着距海岸线的距离增加，单位面积的ESV逐渐下降。与2015年相比，2025年社会经济发展情景和一切照旧情景的ESV总量呈下降趋势，而在生态保护优先情景下则呈上升趋势。在生态保护优先方案下，调节服务和支持服务显着增加，但在社会经济发展方案下则急剧下降。LUCC模式是ESV下降的主要原因。该研究为沿海空间的开发利用和“生态-经济-社会”效益的提高提供了理论基础和支持。此外，