Predicting algal population dynamics using models informed by experimental data has been used as a strategy to inform the management and control of harmful cyanobacterial blooms. We selected toxic bloom-forming species Microcystis spp. and Raphidiopsis raciborskii (basionym Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii) for further examination as they dominate in 78 % and 17 %, respectively, of freshwater cyanobacterial blooms (cyanoHABs) reported globally over the past 30 years. Field measurements of cyanoHABs are typically based on biomass accumulation, but laboratory experiments typically measure growth rates, which are an important variable in cyanoHAB models. Our objective was to determine the usefulness of laboratory studies of these cyanoHAB growth rates for simulating the species dominance at a global scale. We synthesized growth responses of M. aeruginosa and R. raciborskii from 20 and 16 culture studies, respectively, to predict growth rates as a function of two environmental variables, light and temperature. Predicted growth rates of R. raciborskii exceeded those of M. aeruginosa at temperatures $\gtrsim$ 25 °C and light intensities $\gtrsim$ 150 μmol photons m⁻² s^-1. Field observations of biomass accumulation, however, show that M. aeruginosa dominates over R. raciborskii, irrespective of climatic zones. The mismatch between biomass accumulation measured in the field, and what is predicted from growth rate measured in the laboratory, hinders effective use of culture studies to predict formation of cyanoHABs in the natural environment. The usefulness of growth rates measured may therefore be limited, and field experiments should instead be designed to examine key physiological attributes such as colony formation, buoyancy regulation and photoadaptation. Improving prediction of cyanoHABs in a changing climate requires a more effective integration of field and laboratory approaches, and an explicit consideration of strain-level variability.

使用实验数据提供的模型预测藻类种群的动态已被用作一种策略，用于管理和控制有害的蓝藻水华。我们选择了有毒的水华形成物种微囊藻。和Raphidiopsis raciborskii（原名Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii），以便进一步检查，因为在过去30年中，它们分别占全球报告的淡水蓝藻水华（cyanoHAB）的78％和17％。cyanoHAB的现场测量通常基于生物量的积累，但是实验室实验通常测量生长速率，这是cyanoHAB模型中的重要变量。我们的目标是确定对这些cyanoHAB增长率的实验室研究对于在全球范围内模拟物种优势的有用性。我们分别从20和16个文化研究中合成了铜绿假单胞菌和R. raciborskii的生长反应，以预测生长速度随两个环境变量（光照和温度）的变化而变化。R. raciborskii的预测增长率在一定温度下超过了铜绿假单胞菌$\gtrsim$ 25°C和光照强度 $\gtrsim$150μmol光子m ^-2 s ^-1。然而，对生物量积累的现场观察表明，铜绿假单胞菌在R. raciborskii上占主导地位。，无论气候带如何。在野外测得的生物量积累与实验室测得的增长率之间的不匹配，妨碍了有效利用培养研究来预测自然环境中氰基HAB的形成。因此，所测得的增长率的有用性可能会受到限制，而应将野外实验设计为检查关键的生理属性，例如菌落形成，浮力调节和光适应。在不断变化的气候中改善cyanoHAB的预测要求更有效地整合现场和实验室方法，并明确考虑菌株水平的变异性。