Global trends in the development and use of electricity utilities and assets are practically irreversible. In industrialized nations, capacity factors have grown so large that users may expect freely available electrical potential energy at all times and in almost all locations. Economically capitalizing on this trend means maximizing energy provision and use to boost gross domestic product growth rates. Electricity is now a basic indicator of social development; it is to the cultural-technological dimension what breathing air is to the physiological-biological dimension, the implication being that sustainable development of provision systems has become a matter of international concern. This article presents a decision basis for the design of sustainable national electrical energy supply systems, incorporating country-specific boundary conditions in the form of user requirements to be specified by users. The basis is a solution space of technologically possible systems, obtained by combining generalized user requirements and physical limitations to generate the solution states. As all technological options for the system are brought under consideration, this approach represents a comprehensive comparative analysis. The decision process ensues by assigning to each solution state a set of (newly defined) system risk factors. Particular consideration is given to evaluating the system’s ability to meet the user requirements, i.e., interruption-free provision. The central benchmark is the technological-economic availability. From this is obtained a sustainability boundary, the boundary between quantifiable and unquantifiable economic loss potentials. This article deliberately avoids referencing specific technological solutions, with the justification that the basis of the user’s decision should be independent of technological considerations. The sole exception is a reference to the currently used technology, which forms the starting point.

中文翻译：

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包括可持续性在内的国家电力供应系统的技术社会学耦合模型

电力公用事业和资产的开发和使用的全球趋势实际上是不可逆的。在工业化国家，容量因子已经变得如此之大，以至于用户可能希望在任何时候，几乎所有地点都可以免费获得潜在的电能。从经济上把握这一趋势，就意味着要最大限度地利用能源，以提高国内生产总值的增长率。电力是社会发展的基本指标。在文化技术层面上呼吸空气是在生理生物学层面上，这意味着供应系统的可持续发展已成为国际关注的问题。本文为可持续的国家电力供应系统的设计提供了决策依据，以用户要求的形式结合国家特定的边界条件，由用户指定。基础是技术上可能的系统的解决方案空间，通过将广义的用户需求和物理限制相结合以生成解决方案状态来获得该解决方案空间。由于考虑了系统的所有技术选择，因此该方法代表了全面的比较分析。通过为每个解决方案状态分配一组（新定义的）系统风险因素来进行决策过程。特别考虑了评估系统满足用户要求（即无中断提供）的能力。中心基准是技术经济可用性。由此得出可持续性边界，可量化和不可量化的经济损失潜力之间的界限。本文特意避免引用特定的技术解决方案，理由是用户决定的依据应独立于技术考虑因素。唯一的例外是对当前使用的技术的引用，它构成了起点。