Abstract Tremendous amounts of oil and gas products are transported in pipelines worldwide resulting in increasing interest to identify the hazards and evaluate the associated risks associated with this critical infrastructure. Third-party intrusion is one of the least quantifiable factors being considered during the pipeline hazard assessment stage despite the substantial contributing to the total number of oil and gas pipeline incidents. This is because a probabilistic risk assessment cannot reliably model human actions and be applied to intentional acts. Due to the distinctive motivations of third-party damage, an unintentional third-party damage Bayesian Network model and a game-theoretic model on malicious intrusion will therefore be built, to examine the mechanism of pipeline failure caused by this mode. This study is conducted aiming at investigating pipeline risk resulting from third-party damage, and will formulate risk assessment models to identify threats, prioritize risks and determine which integrity plan should apply to different pipeline segments given the condition of third-party interference (both the accidental damage and malicious acts).

中文翻译：

---

油气管道第三方损害贝叶斯网络与博弈论风险评估模型

摘要 大量石油和天然气产品在世界范围内通过管道运输，导致人们越来越关注识别与这一关键基础设施相关的危害和评估相关风险。第三方入侵是管道危险评估阶段考虑的最不可量化的因素之一，尽管对石油和天然气管道事故的总数有重大贡献。这是因为概率风险评估无法可靠地模拟人类行为并应用于故意行为。由于第三方破坏的独特动机，因此将构建非故意第三方破坏贝叶斯网络模型和恶意入侵的博弈论模型，以检验这种模式导致管道故障的机制。