AIMS/HYPOTHESIS Data on trends of end-stage renal disease among people with diabetes are lacking. We analysed the incidence of end-stage renal disease, defined as renal replacement therapy, among people with and without diabetes, and the corresponding relative risk. Moreover, we investigated time trends for the period 2002-2016. METHODS In this retrospective population-based study we analysed data from one dialysis centre of a region in Germany covering a population of about 310,000 inhabitants. We estimated the age- and sex-standardised incidence rates for chronic renal replacement therapy among adults with and without diabetes and the corresponding relative risks. The time trend was analysed using Poisson regression models. RESULTS Between 2002 and 2016, 1107 people (61.2% male; mean age 71.6 years; 48.7% with diabetes) had a first renal replacement therapy. During the study period, the incidence rate in the population with diabetes varied from 93.6 (95% CI 50.4, 136.7) in 2002 to 140.5 (95% CI 80.6, 200.4) in 2016 per 100,000 person-years. In the population without diabetes the incidence rate was substantially lower and reached 17.3 (95% CI 10.9, 23.6) in 2002 and 24.6 (95% CI 17.5, 31.7) in 2009. The relative risk comparing people with and without diabetes was 3.57 (95% CI 3.09, 4.13). No significant change in the incidence rates was found during the observation period, either in the population with or in the population without diabetes, and thus the relative risk also remained constant. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION People with diabetes have a higher risk of needing renal replacement therapy than those without diabetes, a fact that remained constant over a time period of 15 years.

中文翻译：

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2002年至2016年之间，德国地区有或没有糖尿病的人进行肾脏替代治疗的发生率和相对风险。

目的/假设缺乏关于糖尿病患者终末期肾脏疾病趋势的数据。我们分析了患有和不患有糖尿病的人群中定义为肾脏替代疗法的终末期肾脏疾病的发生率，以及相应的相对风险。此外，我们调查了2002-2016年期间的时间趋势。方法在这项基于人群的回顾性研究中，我们分析了德国一个地区一个透析中心的数据，该中心覆盖了约31万居民。我们估算了患有和不患有糖尿病的成年人中慢性肾脏替代治疗的年龄和性别标准化发病率，以及相应的相对风险。使用泊松回归模型分析时间趋势。结果2002年至2016年，共有1107人（男性61.2％;平均年龄71.6岁; 48。7％（患有糖尿病）接受了首次肾脏替代治疗。在研究期间，糖尿病人群的发病率从2002年的每10万人年93.6（95％CI 50.4，136.7）到140.5（95％CI 80.6，200.4）每100,000人年。在没有糖尿病的人群中，发病率显着降低，2002年达到17.3（95％CI 10.9，23.6），2009年达到24.6（95％CI 17.5，31.7）。与有糖尿病和无糖尿病的人相比，相对危险度为3.57（95） ％CI 3.09，4.13）。在有糖尿病的人群或没有糖尿病的人群中，在观察期内未发现发病率的显着变化，因此相对风险也保持恒定。结论/解释糖尿病患者比非糖尿病患者有更高的需要肾脏替代治疗的风险，