Germany has set ambitious goals for the reduction of greenhouse gases. The decarbonisation of the energy system has been in focus. An important means to achieve this is the increased utilisation of wind energy. The growth of wind power entails changes not only in the electrical system but also in the landscape and environment. Prospectively, scenarios will have to consider a wide range of aspects, not only economics and technology but also nature conservation and social affairs. The authors are participating in the research study “Szenarien für den Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien aus Naturschutzsicht”, funded by the Federal Agency for Nature Conservation, which examines the possibilities of integrating nature conservation into the development of scenarios. For aspects of nature conservation to be taken into account in scenario development, a multi-stage methodology has been developed to assess the conflict risk of wind energy and nature conservation throughout Germany. To ensure comparability of the scenarios, all of them are based on the same general framework consisting of fixed excluded areas, the same method of detail allocation and the same overall expected energy output. The “nature conservation” driver is integrated in the form of a nationwide comparative assessment of risk levels. The mapping of spatially differentiated risk levels for wind energy has been achieved in a GIS-based and discursive process. The results show that nature conservation can be addressed properly in scenario-building. Here, the method of multi-criterion scenario-building itself, with its focus on including nature conservation as one of several drivers determining the spatial distribution of wind turbines, is a major result. The authors have developed specific scenarios that mainly address questions of landscape and nature conservation. Out of the four generic scenarios presented for the year 2035, two have nature conservation as their main driver, whereas the other two consider energy-economic drivers only. Examining these scenarios provides insight into the influence of each driver. For example, adding nature conservation as the main driver (highest priority) reduces the specific conflict risk by 26.1%, while at the same time only a relatively small increase in wind turbines is required (+12.5% in numbers, +2.3% in installed power capacity). The methods developed here provide a driver for allocating wind power plants to reduce conflicts in high-risk areas. Furthermore, using the same spatial distribution of risk levels makes it possible to subsequently rate the scenarios from a conservation perspective. The method developed here provides the means to analyse trade-offs between relevant drivers. The “nature conservation” scenarios show a relatively small additional demand for wind turbines but a greater amount of avoided conflict risk.

中文翻译：

---

自然保护是风能场景中的驱动力

德国为减少温室气体设定了雄心勃勃的目标。能源系统的脱碳一直是重点。实现这一目标的重要手段是增加对风能的利用。风能的增长不仅需要改变电气系统，还需要改变景观和环境。前景可能需要考虑广泛的方面，不仅是经济学和技术，还包括自然保护和社会事务。作者正在参加由联邦自然保护局资助的“ Szenarienfürden Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien aus Naturschutzsicht”研究，该研究探讨了将自然保护纳入情景开发的可能性。为了在方案制定中考虑到自然保护的各个方面，已经开发出一种多阶段的方法来评估整个德国的风能与自然保护的冲突风险。为了确保方案的可比性，所有方案均基于由固定的排除区域，相同的详细信息分配方法和相同的总体预期能量输出组成的相同总体框架。“自然保护”驱动因素以全国范围内对风险水平的比较评估的形式整合在一起。风能的空间差异风险级别的映射已在基于GIS的离散过程中完成。结果表明，在情景设想中可以适当地解决自然保护问题。在这里，多准则场景构建方法本身，其主要成果是将自然保护作为确定风力涡轮机空间分布的几个驱动因素之一。作者已经开发出特定的方案，主要解决景观和自然保护问题。在提出的2035年的四种通用情景中，有两种以自然保护为主要驱动力，而另两种仅考虑能源经济驱动力。检查这些方案可以深入了解每个驱动因素的影响。例如，将自然保护作为主要驱动因素（最高优先级）将特定的冲突风险降低了26.1％，而同时仅需要相对较小的风力涡轮机增长（数量增加12.5％，安装数量增加2.3％）功率容量）。此处开发的方法为分配风力发电厂提供了动力，以减少高风险地区的冲突。此外，使用相同的风险水平空间分布可以从保护的角度对方案进行后续评估。这里开发的方法提供了分析相关驱动因素之间权衡的方法。“自然保护”场景显示出对风力涡轮机的额外需求相对较小，但避免了较大的冲突风险。