Although fires can easily occur during cotton storage, research on cotton storage fire risk assessment is limited. This work focuses on cotton storage fire risk assessment and investigates the criticality of risk control strategies. Bow‐tie and Bayesian network models are established to investigate the relationships among accident causes, safety barriers, and possible consequences. The results show that the first safety barrier (detection and extinguishment before fire brigade arrival) is more controllable and more effective than the second safety barrier (fire brigade). Based on the collected probability data, the probability and risk of a common accident are higher than those of a large accident and severe accident when safety barriers succeed; when the first safety barrier fails, the probabilities and risks of large and severe accidents increase by more than 2000 times. The criticality of safety measures is investigated by analysing their structural importance, probability importance, and critical importance. The critical events for fire occurrence are an open flame and sparks during storage, and the critical events for detection and extinguishment before fire brigade arrival are watchkeeper monitoring, regular patrolling, and automatic fire alarm systems. For cotton storage safety, this work and its outcomes are used to support the decision‐making of fire risk prevention and control.

中文翻译：

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棉花储存的火灾风险定量评估和风险控制策略的临界度分析

尽管在棉花储存期间很容易发生火灾，但对棉花储存火灾风险评估的研究仍然有限。这项工作侧重于棉花储存火灾风险评估，并研究了风险控制策略的重要性。建立Bow-tie和贝叶斯网络模型来研究事故原因，安全障碍和可能后果之间的关系。结果表明，与第二安全屏障（消防队）相比，第一安全屏障（消防队到达之前的检测和扑灭）更可控且更有效。根据收集的概率数据，成功通过安全屏障后，普通事故的概率和风险要高于大事故和严重事故的概率和风险。当第一个安全屏障失效时，大型和严重事故的可能性和风险增加了2000倍以上。通过分析安全措施的结构重要性，概率重要性和临界重要性来研究其重要性。发生火灾的关键事件是储存期间的明火和火花，而在消防队到达之前进行检测和扑灭的关键事件是值班人员监视，定期巡逻和自动火灾报警系统。为了保证棉花的储存安全，这项工作及其成果可用于支持火灾风险预防和控制的决策。发生火灾的关键事件是在储存期间明火和火花，而在消防队到达之前进行检测和扑灭的关键事件是值班人员监视，定期巡逻和自动火灾报警系统。为了保证棉花的储存安全，这项工作及其成果可用于支持火灾风险预防和控制的决策。发生火灾的关键事件是在储存期间明火和火花，而在消防队到达之前进行检测和扑灭的关键事件是值班人员监视，定期巡逻和自动火灾报警系统。为了保证棉花的储存安全，这项工作及其成果可用于支持火灾风险预防和控制的决策。