Abstract On October 29, 2012, storm surge and large waves produced by Hurricane Sandy resulted in the formation of a breach in eastern Fire Island, NY. The goals of this study are to gain a better understanding of the physical processes that govern breach behavior and to assess whether process-based models can be used to forecast the evolution of future breaches. The wilderness breach grew rapidly in size during the first winter following formation. Growth of the breach was accompanied by the formation of a complex of flood shoals inside Great South Bay, a primary channel that flowed through the eastern part of the flood shoals, and an ebb shoal on the ocean side of the breach. From the summer of 2013 through late 2015, the breach continued to change and evolve, albeit at a much slower pace than in the first year after formation. A hybrid combination of Delft3D and XBeach models is used to hindcast the morphodynamic evolution of the wilderness breach over the first three years after formation. The formation of the breach during Hurricane Sandy is not part of the simulations. Model simulations are initiated with a post-storm topography in which the breach is already present. The models are capable of hindcasting the main morphodynamic changes of the wilderness breach. The spatial patterns, as well as the bulk statistics, such as breach geometry and sediment volume changes, are reasonably well reproduced by the model. The model sheds light on previously unknown processes of breach evolution, especially regarding sediment transport and flow regimes within the breach complex.

中文翻译：

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Wilderness Breach 的形态动力学建模，纽约火岛。第 I 部分：模型设置和验证

摘要 2012 年 10 月 29 日，飓风桑迪产生的风暴潮和巨浪导致纽约州火岛东部形成了一个裂缝。本研究的目标是更好地了解控制违规行为的物理过程，并评估是否可以使用基于流程的模型来预测未来违规的演变。在形成后的第一个冬天，荒野裂口的规模迅速扩大。裂口的扩大伴随着大南湾内泛滩复合体的形成，这是流经潮滩东部的主要通道，以及裂口海侧的退潮滩。从 2013 年夏天到 2015 年末，漏洞继续变化和演变，尽管速度比形成后的第一年慢得多。Delft3D 和 XBeach 模型的混合组合用于后报荒野破坏在形成后的前三年内的形态动力学演变。飓风桑迪期间裂缝的形成不是模拟的一部分。模型模拟从风暴后的地形开始，其中已经存在缺口。这些模型能够后报荒野破坏的主要形态动力学变化。模型合理地再现了空间模式以及大量统计数据，例如裂缝几何形状和沉积物体积变化。该模型揭示了以前未知的裂隙演化过程，特别是关于裂隙复合体内的沉积物输送和流态。