This paper presents a Bayesian network model to assess the vulnerability of the flood control infrastructure and to simulate failure cascade based on the topological structure of flood control networks along with hydrological information gathered from sensors. Two measures are proposed to characterize the flood control network vulnerability and failure cascade: (a) node failure probability (NFP), which determines the failure likelihood of each network component under each scenario of rainfall event, and (b) failure cascade susceptibility, which captures the susceptibility of a network component to failure due to failure of other links. The proposed model was tested in both single watershed and multiple watershed scenarios in Harris County, Texas using historical data from three different flooding events, including Hurricane Harvey in 2017. The proposed model was able to identify the most vulnerable flood control network segments prone to flooding in the face of extreme rainfall. The framework and results furnish a new tool and insights to help decision‐makers to prioritize infrastructure enhancement investments and actions. The proposed Bayesian network modeling framework also enables simulation of failure cascades in flood control infrastructures, and thus could be used for scenario planning as well as near‐real‐time inundation forecasting to inform emergency response planning and operation, and hence improve the flood resilience of urban areas.

中文翻译：

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用于故障级联表征和脆弱性评估的防洪网络的贝叶斯建模

本文提出了一种贝叶斯网络模型，用于评估防洪基础设施的脆弱性，并基于防洪网络的拓扑结构以及从传感器收集的水文信息来模拟故障的级联。提出了两种措施来描述洪水控制网络的脆弱性和故障级联：（a）节点故障概率（NFP），它确定降雨事件每种情景下每个网络组件的故障可能性，以及（b）故障级联易感性，捕获由于其他链路故障而导致网络组件发生故障的敏感性。在德克萨斯州哈里斯县的单个流域和多个流域场景中，使用来自三个不同洪水事件的历史数据（包括2017年哈维飓风）的历史数据对拟议模型进行了测试。所提出的模型能够确定面对极端降雨时最容易泛洪的最脆弱的防洪网络网段。该框架和结果提供了新的工具和见解，可帮助决策者确定基础设施建设投资和行动的优先级。拟议的贝叶斯网络建模框架还能够模拟防洪基础设施中的故障级联，因此可用于方案规划以及近实时淹没预测，以为应急响应计划和操作提供信息，从而提高防洪基础设施的抗洪能力。城市地区。该框架和结果提供了新的工具和见解，可帮助决策者确定基础设施建设投资和行动的优先级。拟议的贝叶斯网络建模框架还可以模拟防洪基础设施中的故障级联，因此可以用于情景规划以及近实时淹没预测，以为应急响应计划和操作提供信息，从而提高防洪基础设施的抗洪能力。城市地区。该框架和结果提供了新的工具和见解，可帮助决策者确定基础设施建设投资和行动的优先级。拟议的贝叶斯网络建模框架还能够模拟防洪基础设施中的故障级联，因此可用于方案规划以及近实时淹没预测，以为应急响应计划和操作提供信息，从而提高防洪基础设施的抗洪能力。城市地区。