A systemic overreaction to years versus decades of warming in a subarctic grassland ecosystem.,Nature Ecology & Evolution

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A systemic overreaction to years versus decades of warming in a subarctic grassland ecosystem.
Nature Ecology & Evolution ( IF 13.9 ) Pub Date : 2019-12-09 , DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-1055-3
Tom W N Walker _{1,

2} , Ivan A Janssens ₃ , James T Weedon ₄ , Bjarni D Sigurdsson ₅ , Andreas Richter _{6,

7} , Josep Peñuelas _{8,

9} , Niki I W Leblans _{3,

5} , Michael Bahn ₁₀ , Mireia Bartrons _{8,

11} , Cindy De Jonge ₃ , Lucia Fuchslueger _{3,

6} , Albert Gargallo-Garriga _{8,

9,

12} , Gunnhildur E Gunnarsdóttir _{5,

13} , Sara Marañón-Jiménez _{3,

8,

9} , Edda S Oddsdóttir ₁₄ , Ivika Ostonen ₁₅ , Christopher Poeplau ₁₆ , Judith Prommer ₆ , Dajana Radujković ₃ , Jordi Sardans _{8,

9} , Páll Sigurðsson ₅ , Jennifer L Soong _{3,

17} , Sara Vicca ₃ , Håkan Wallander ₁₈ , Krassimira Ilieva-Makulec ₁₉ , Erik Verbruggen ₃

Affiliation

Institute for Integrative Biology, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
Department of Ecology & Evolution, Université de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium.
Department of Ecological Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Agricultural University of Iceland, Borgarnes, Iceland.
Department of Microbiology & Ecosystem Science, Division of Terrestrial Ecosystem Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystems Services and Management Program, Laxenberg, Austria.
CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Bellaterra, Spain.
CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain.
Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
Aquatic Ecology Group, University of Vic-Central University of Catalonia, Vic, Spain.
Global Change Research Institute, Brno, Czech Republic.
Soil Conservation Service of Iceland, Gunnarsholti, Hella, Iceland.
Icelandic Forest Research, Mógilsá, Reykjavík, Iceland.
Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
Thünen Institute of Climate-Smart Agriculture, Braunschweig, Germany.
Climate and Ecosystem Science Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.
MEMEG, Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Institute of Ecology & Bioethics, Cardinal St. Wyszynski University, Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland.

Temperature governs most biotic processes, yet we know little about how warming affects whole ecosystems. Here we examined the responses of 128 components of a subarctic grassland to either 5-8 or >50 years of soil warming. Warming of >50 years drove the ecosystem to a new steady state possessing a distinct biotic composition and reduced species richness, biomass and soil organic matter. However, the warmed state was preceded by an overreaction to warming, which was related to organism physiology and was evident after 5-8 years. Ignoring this overreaction yielded errors of >100% for 83 variables when predicting their responses to a realistic warming scenario of 1 °C over 50 years, although some, including soil carbon content, remained stable after 5-8 years. This study challenges long-term ecosystem predictions made from short-term observations, and provides a framework for characterization of ecosystem responses to sustained climate change.

中文翻译：

在亚北极草原生态系统中对多年变暖与几十年变暖的系统性过度反应。

温度控制着大多数生物过程，但我们对变暖如何影响整个生态系统知之甚少。在这里，我们检查了亚北极草原的 128 个组成部分对 5-8 年或 >50 年的土壤变暖的反应。超过 50 年的变暖将生态系统推向一个新的稳定状态，具有独特的生物组成和减少的物种丰富度、生物量和土壤有机质。然而，变暖状态之前是对变暖的过度反应，这与生物体生理有关，并在5-8年后明显。在预测 83 个变量对 50 年内 1 °C 的实际变暖情景的响应时，忽略这种过度反应会产生 >100% 的误差，尽管包括土壤碳含量在内的一些变量在 5-8 年后保持稳定。

更新日期：2019-12-11

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