BACKGROUND We sought to determine the extent to which US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) 2012 Grade D recommendations against prostate-specific antigen screening may have impacted recent prostate cancer disease incidence patterns in the United States across stage, National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk groups, and age groups. METHODS SEER*Stat version 8.3.4 was used to calculate annual prostate cancer incidence rates from 2010 to 2015 for men aged ≥50 years according to American Joint Committee on Cancer stage at diagnosis (localized vs metastatic), NCCN risk group (low vs unfavorable [intermediate or high-risk]), and age group (50-74 years vs ≥75 years). Age-adjusted incidences per 100,000 persons with corresponding year-by-year incidence ratios (IRs) were calculated using the 2000 US Census population. RESULTS From 2010 to 2015, the incidence (per 100,000 persons) of localized prostate cancer decreased from 195.4 to 131.9 (Ptrend < .001) and from 189.0 to 123.4 (Ptrend < .001) among men aged 50-74 and ≥75 years, respectively. The largest relative year-by-year decline occurred between 2011 and 2012 in NCCN low-risk disease (IR, 0.77 [0.75-0.79, P < .0001] and IR 0.68 [0.62-0.74, P < .0001] for men aged 50-74 and ≥75 years, respectively). From 2010-2015, the incidence of metastatic disease increased from 6.2 to 7.1 (Ptrend < .001) and from 16.8 to 22.6 (Ptrend < .001) among men aged 50-74 and ≥75 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS This report illustrates recent prostate cancer "reverse migration" away from indolent disease and toward more aggressive disease beginning in 2012. The incidence of localized disease declined across age groups from 2012 to 2015, with the greatest relative declines occurring in low-risk disease. Additionally, the incidence of distant metastatic disease increased gradually throughout the study period.

中文翻译：

---

在2012年USPSTF D级推荐针对前列腺特异性抗原筛查的建议之前和之后的阶段，NCCN危险人群以及年龄之间的前列腺癌发病率。

背景技术我们试图确定美国预防服务工作队（USPSTF）2012年针对前列腺特异性抗原筛查的D级建议可能在多大程度上影响了美国近期跨阶段的前列腺癌疾病发病模式，国家综合癌症网络（NCCN）风险组和年龄组。方法根据美国癌症联合委员会诊断阶段（局部性与转移性），NCCN危险组（低与不利），使用SEER * Stat版本8.3.4计算2010年至2015年≥50岁男性的年度前列腺癌发生率。 [中级或高风险]和年龄组（50-74岁vs≥75岁）。使用2000年美国人口普查人口计算出每100,000人的年龄校正后的发病率，以及相应的逐年发生率（IRs）。结果2010年至2015年，年龄在50-74岁且年龄≥75岁的男性中，局部前列腺癌的发生率（每100,000人）从195.4下降到131.9（Ptrend <.001），从189.0下降到123.4（Ptrend <.001），分别。相对最大的逐年下降发生在2011年至2012年之间，是NCCN低危疾病（男性，IR为0.77 [0.75-0.79，P <.0001]，IR为0.68 [0.62-0.74，P <.0001]分别为50-74岁和≥75岁）。从2010年至2015年，在50-74岁和≥75岁的男性中，转移性疾病的发生率分别从6.2增加到7.1（Ptrend <.001）和从16.8增加到22.6（Ptrend <.001）。结论本报告说明最近的前列腺癌从惰性疾病开始“逆向迁移”，并于2012年开始向更具侵略性的疾病发展。从2012年到2015年，各个年龄段的局部疾病发病率均下降，其中相对最大的下降发生在低危疾病中。此外，在整个研究期间，远处转移性疾病的发生率逐渐增加。