Abstract Threatened species management is a priority in global conservation. Despite many international and national initiatives, this strategy faces challenges posed by a wide range of institutional and organizational factors that influence planning and effective implementation. Empirical research of this issue is scarce given the complexity of addressing management issues. Systems analysis and participatory modeling were applied in this study to construct a conceptualization of a management system in the context of Australian governmental programs. This allowed examination of the structure, key elements and dynamics in order to address two research questions: a) which management factors have most influence on implementation of recovery planning? and b) what modifications could be made to improve recovery planning effectiveness? The methods employed comprised stakeholder interviews, expert workshops and qualitative and quantitative analyses to estimate management performance and effectiveness. The management system model was constructed using a Bayesian belief network to assess the most influential factors: a) coordination among federal, state and territory agencies, b) inconsistency of strategies and programs across jurisdictions, c) management of threatened species on private land, d) incorporation of science into recovery planning, e) prioritization schemes of conservation action and f) funding for plan implementation. Recovery planning effectiveness could be improved by establishing mandatory monitoring and review reports, creating a national forum on threatened species, designing an appropriate insurance regime for volunteers and establishing a national management information system.

中文翻译：

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通过贝叶斯信念网络改进受威胁物种的恢复计划

摘要 濒危物种管理是全球保护的优先事项。尽管有许多国际和国家举措，但该战略面临着影响规划和有效实施的各种体制和组织因素带来的挑战。鉴于解决管理问题的复杂性，对这个问题的实证研究很少。本研究应用了系统分析和参与式建模，以在澳大利亚政府项目的背景下构建管理系统的概念化。这允许检查结构、关键要素和动态，以解决两个研究问题：a) 哪些管理因素对恢复计划的实施影响最大？b) 可以进行哪些修改以提高恢复计划的有效性？所采用的方法包括利益相关者访谈、专家研讨会以及定性和定量分析，以评估管理绩效和有效性。管理系统模型是使用贝叶斯信念网络构建的，以评估最有影响的因素：a) 联邦、州和地区机构之间的协调，b) 跨辖区的战略和计划不一致，c) 对私有土地上受威胁物种的管理，d ) 将科学纳入恢复计划， e) 保护行动的优先级计划和 f) 计划实施的资金。