Abstract Replacing animal proteins with plant proteins in diets has been demonstrated to have both health and environmental advantages, driving a debate about the potential of protein-rich crops as dietary replacements for animal products. However, there is a lack of knowledge on how climate change could influence the potential for producing protein-rich crops. This study addresses this knowledge gap for the European Union. We analysed 13 protein-rich crops, using the crop suitability model EcoCrop and climate projections for the 2050s, based on 30 Global Circulation Models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. The results suggest that current protein-rich crop distributions reflect climatic suitability. We demonstrate the heterogeneous impacts of climate change on crop suitability. In general, conditions in northern Europe were modelled to become more favourable for protein-rich crops, while in southern Europe modelled future climates limit the production of traditional protein-rich crops commonly grown there, including chickpea and lentil. Model results show an expanded area of high suitability for quinoa. Our results confirm the need for concerted breeding and research planning strategies to improve the tolerance of faba bean, lentil, and chickpea to the abiotic stresses that are predicted to become more common with climate change. At the same time, production in northern Europe can benefit from experimentation with protein-rich crops predicted to become more suitable there. Production planning and agricultural policy should consider these likely impacts, to encourage shifts that follow the emerging geographic patterns of crop suitability, and to support the resilience of protein-rich crop production in regions that may be negatively impacted by climate change.

中文翻译：

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当前和未来欧洲气候下富含蛋白质的豆类和伪谷物作物的适宜性

摘要 在饮食中用植物蛋白替代动物蛋白已被证明具有健康和环境优势，引发了关于富含蛋白质的作物作为动物产品的饮食替代品的潜力的争论。然而，人们对气候变化如何影响生产富含蛋白质的作物的潜力缺乏了解。本研究解决了欧盟的这一知识差距。我们使用作物适宜性模型 EcoCrop 和 2050 年代气候预测分析了 13 种富含蛋白质的作物，基于 30 个全球循环模型，在代表性浓度路径 4.5 下。结果表明，当前富含蛋白质的作物分布反映了气候适宜性。我们展示了气候变化对作物适宜性的异质影响。一般来说，模拟北欧的条件变得更有利于富含蛋白质的作物，而在南欧模拟的未来气候限制了通常在那里种植的传统富含蛋白质的作物的生产，包括鹰嘴豆和扁豆。模型结果表明藜麦的高适宜性区域扩大了。我们的结果证实，需要协调一致的育种和研究规划策略，以提高蚕豆、扁豆和鹰嘴豆对预计随着气候变化变得更加普遍的非生物胁迫的耐受性。与此同时，北欧的生产可以受益于富含蛋白质的作物的试验，预计这些作物将变得更适合那里。生产计划和农业政策应考虑这些可能的影响，