Abstract The promotion of optimum rotations and agricultural management of winter wheat-based cropping systems is very critical, as wheat is considered an essential component in the Mediterranean diet. Considering the delicate economic situation of farmers in the Mediterranean area, recommending a low risk, sustainable farming system is desirable. In this study, an innovative application of a multi-criteria field-level approach is presented, targeting food security, farmer profitability and environmental sustainability. The CropSyst biophysical simulation model was calibrated and implemented for the study site. It was chosen for its agro-environmental robustness to simulate four rotations (wheat-wheat, wheat-fallow, wheat-potato, and wheat-fava bean). Four types of wheat agricultural management systems (full fertilization and full irrigation, full fertilization and zero irrigation, zero fertilization and full irrigation, and zero fertilization and irrigation) were tested in low and high soil water holding capacity (WHC) types. The effects of soil conditions, management practices and rotation type on wheat grain yields were assessed. Furthermore, the performance of each winter wheat-based cropping system was evaluated in terms of productivity (protein production and profitability) and the efficient use of resources (nitrogen and water), as well as the economic risk of low relative productivity each one engenders. The results show that there is no particular optimal scenario that can simultaneously ensure high productivity, reduce economic risk of low relative productivity, and achieve high wheat- water- and nitrogen-use efficiency. However, the wheat-fava bean rotation cultivated with no wheat fertilization appeared to be a better substitute to the wheat-wheat rotation in terms of protein production (0.93 t/ha versus 0.8 t/ha in low WHC soil and 1.34 t/ha versus 1.17 t/ha in high WHC). This cropping system achieved a higher net profit (2111 US$/ha versus 1222US$/ha in low WHC and 3550 US$/ha versus 2450 US$/ha in high WHC), showing high resource-use efficiency and was less risky for farmers. Moreover, a very high profit could only be attained with the wheat-potato rotation (8640 US$/ha and 12,170 US$/ha in low and high WHC, respectively), yet with low input-efficiency and high economic risk of low relative productivity.

中文翻译：

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亚干旱地中海环境下小麦种植系统的表现和低相对生产力评估的经济风险

摘要 促进以冬小麦为基础的作物系统的最佳轮作和农业管理非常关键，因为小麦被认为是地中海饮食的重要组成部分。考虑到地中海地区农民脆弱的经济状况，推荐低风险、可持续的耕作系统是可取的。在这项研究中，提出了多标准田间方法的创新应用，针对粮食安全、农民盈利能力和环境可持续性。CropSyst 生物物理模拟模型已针对研究地点进行校准和实施。选择它是因为它的农业环境鲁棒性来模拟四种轮作（小麦 - 小麦、小麦 - 休耕、小麦 - 土豆和小麦 - 蚕豆）。四种小麦农业管理制度（全施肥、全灌溉、在低和高土壤持水能力（WHC）类型中测试了完全施肥和零灌溉、零施肥和完全灌溉以及零施肥和灌溉）。评估了土壤条件、管理措施和轮作类型对小麦籽粒产量的影响。此外，根据生产力（蛋白质生产和盈利能力）和资源（氮和水）的有效利用，以及每一种产生的相对生产力低下的经济风险，对每种以冬小麦为基础的种植系统的性能进行了评估。结果表明，没有特定的最优方案可以同时确保高生产力，降低相对生产力低下的经济风险，并实现小麦-水-氮的高利用效率。然而，就蛋白质产量而言，没有小麦施肥的小麦-蚕豆轮作似乎是小麦-小麦轮作的更好替代品（在低 WHC 土壤中为 0.93 吨/公顷对 0.8 吨/公顷，在低 WHC 土壤中为 1.34 吨/公顷对 1.17 吨） /ha 高 WHC）。这种种植系统实现了更高的净利润（低 WHC 为 2111 美元/公顷，低 WHC 为 1222 美元/公顷，3550 美元/公顷，高 WHC 为 2450 美元/公顷），显示出较高的资源利用效率，并且风险较小农民。此外，只有小麦-马铃薯轮作才能获得非常高的利润（低 WHC 和高 WHC 分别为 8640 美元/公顷和 12,170 美元/公顷），但投入效率低，相对较低的经济风险高。生产率。34 吨/公顷与高 WHC 的 1.17 吨/公顷）。这种种植系统实现了更高的净利润（低 WHC 为 2111 美元/公顷，1222 美元/公顷，高 WHC 为 3550 美元/公顷，高 WHC 为 2450 美元/公顷），显示出较高的资源利用效率，并且风险较小农民。此外，只有小麦-马铃薯轮作才能获得非常高的利润（低 WHC 和高 WHC 分别为 8640 美元/公顷和 12,170 美元/公顷），但投入效率低，相对较低的经济风险高。生产率。34 吨/公顷与高 WHC 的 1.17 吨/公顷）。这种种植系统实现了更高的净利润（低 WHC 为 2111 美元/公顷，1222 美元/公顷，高 WHC 为 3550 美元/公顷，高 WHC 为 2450 美元/公顷），显示出较高的资源利用效率，并且风险较小农民。此外，只有小麦-马铃薯轮作才能获得非常高的利润（低 WHC 和高 WHC 分别为 8640 美元/公顷和 12,170 美元/公顷），但投入效率低，相对较低的经济风险高。生产率。