Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease impacting mainly intensive production systems. In southern Africa, the FMD virus is maintained in wildlife and its control is therefore complicated. However, FMD control is an important task to allow countries access to lucrative foreign meat market and veterinary services implement drastic control measures on livestock populations living in the periphery of protected areas, negatively impacting local small-scale livestock producers. This study investigated FMD primary outbreak data in Zimbabwe from 1931 to 2016 to describe the spatio-temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks and their potential drivers. The results suggest that: (i) FMD outbreaks were not randomly distributed in space across Zimbabwe but are clustered in the Southeast Lowveld (SEL); (ii) the proximity of protected areas with African buffalos was potentially responsible for primary FMD outbreaks in cattle; (iii) rainfall per se was not associated with FMD outbreaks, but seasons impacted the temporal occurrence of FMD outbreaks across regions; (iv) the frequency of FMD outbreaks increased during periods of major socio-economic and political crisis. The differences between the spatial clusters and other areas in Zimbabwe presenting similar buffalo/cattle interfaces but with fewer FMD outbreaks can be interpreted in light of the recent better understanding of wildlife/livestock interactions in these areas. The types of wildlife/livestock interfaces are hypothesized to be the key drivers of contacts between wildlife and livestock, triggering a risk of FMD inter-species spillover. The management of wildlife/livestock interfaces is therefore crucial for the control of FMD in southern Africa.

中文翻译：

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1931 年至 2016 年间津巴布韦牛口蹄疫初次暴发的空间和季节模式。

口蹄疫（FMD）是一种重要的牲畜疾病，主要影响集约化生产系统。在南部非洲，口蹄疫病毒存在于野生动物体内，因此其控制十分复杂。然而，口蹄疫控制是一项重要任务，使各国能够进入利润丰厚的外国肉类市场，兽医服务对保护区周边的牲畜种群实施严厉的控制措施，对当地小规模畜牧生产者产生负面影响。本研究调查了 1931 年至 2016 年津巴布韦的口蹄疫初次暴发数据，以描述口蹄疫暴发的时空分布及其潜在驱动因素。结果表明： (i) 口蹄疫疫情并非随机分布在津巴布韦各地，而是集中在东南低地草原 (SEL)；(ii) 保护区与非洲水牛的距离较近可能是牛口蹄疫的主要爆发的原因；(iii) 降雨量本身与口蹄疫爆发无关，但季节影响口蹄疫爆发的时间跨地区发生；(iv) 在重大社会经济和政治危机期间，口蹄疫爆发的频率增加。空间集群与津巴布韦其他地区之间的差异呈现出类似的水牛/牛界面，但口蹄疫爆发较少，可以根据最近对这些地区野生动物/牲畜相互作用的更好了解来解释。野生动物/牲畜接触面的类型被认为是野生动物和牲畜之间接触的关键驱动因素，引发了口蹄疫物种间溢出的风险。因此，野生动物/牲畜接触面的管理对于控制南部非洲的口蹄疫至关重要。