Short-term geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) driven by the quasi-periodic 11-year cycle of solar activity have been linked to a broad range of adverse health effects, including cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and total deaths. We conducted a large epidemiological study in 263 U.S. cities to assess the effects of GMD on daily deaths of total, CVD, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke. We employed a two-step meta-analysis approach, in which we estimated city-specific and season-stratified mortality risk associated with a GMD parameter (Kp index) in 263 U.S. cities. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed to assess whether effect modification of particulate matter (PM2.5) in the prior day changed Kp index effects on daily deaths after adjusting for confounders. We found significant association between daily GMD and total, CVD, and MI deaths. The effects were even stronger when we adjusted the models for 24-h PM2.5 for different seasons. For example, in the winter and fall one standard deviation of z-score Kp index increase was associated with a 0.13 and 0.31% increase in total deaths, respectively (Winter: p = 0.01, 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.24; Fall: p = 0.00001; 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.4), without adjusting for PM2.5. The effects of GMD on total deaths were also observed in spring and summer in the models without PM2.5 (p = 0.00001). When the models were adjusted for PM2.5 the total deaths increased 0.47% in winter (p = 0.00001, 95% CI: 0.3 to 0.65) and by 0.23% in fall (p = 0.001, 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.37). The effects of GMD were also significant associated with MI deaths and CVD. No positive significant association were found between Kp and stroke. The GMD effects on deaths were higher than for 24 h-PM2.5 alone, especially in spring and fall. Our results suggest that GMD is associated with total, CVD and MI deaths in 263 U. S cities. Increased mortality in the general population during GMD should be further investigated to determine whether those human physiological dynamics driven by variations in solar activity can be related to daily clinical cardiovascular observations.

中文翻译：

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太阳活动驱动的地磁扰动增加了美国 263 个城市的总死亡风险和心血管死亡风险

由准周期 11 年太阳活动周期驱动的短期地磁扰动 (GMD) 与一系列广泛的不利健康影响有关，包括心血管疾病 (CVD) 和总死亡人数。我们在美国 263 个城市进行了一项大型流行病学研究，以评估 GMD 对每日总死亡人数、CVD、心肌梗死 (MI) 和中风的影响。我们采用了两步荟萃分析方法，估算了 263 个美国城市与 GMD 参数（Kp 指数）相关的特定城市和季节分层的死亡风险。此外，还进行了敏感性分析，以评估在调整混杂因素后，前一天颗粒物（PM2.5）的影响修改是否改变了Kp指数对每日死亡人数的影响。我们发现每日 GMD 与总死亡、CVD 和 MI 死亡之间存在显着关联。当我们针对不同季节调整 24 小时 PM2.5 模型时，效果更加明显。例如，在冬季和秋季，z 得分 Kp 指数增加的一个标准差分别与总死亡人数增加 0.13% 和 0.31% 相关（冬季：p = 0.01，95% CI：0.02 至 0.24；秋季：p = 0.00001；95% CI：0.23 至 0.4），未针对 PM2.5 进行调整。在春季和夏季，在没有 PM2.5 的模型中也观察到了 GMD 对总死亡人数的影响 (p = 0.00001)。当模型针对 PM2.5 进行调整时，冬季总死亡人数增加 0.47%（p = 0.00001，95% CI：0.3 至 0.65），秋季增加 0.23%（p = 0.001，95% CI：0.09 至 0.37）。GMD 的影响也与 MI 死亡和 CVD 显着相关。Kp 与中风之间没有发现显着的正相关关系。GMD 对死亡的影响高于单独的 24 小时 PM2.5，特别是在春季和秋季。我们的结果表明，GMD 与美国 263 个城市的 CVD 和 MI 死亡总数相关。应进一步研究 GMD 期间普通人群死亡率的增加，以确定太阳活动变化驱动的人类生理动力学是否与日常临床心血管观察有关。