From the economist’s point of view—a review of the “The German energy transition: Design, implementation, cost and lessons” by Thomas Unnerstall,Energy, Sustainability and Society

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From the economist’s point of view—a review of the “The German energy transition: Design, implementation, cost and lessons” by Thomas Unnerstall
Energy, Sustainability and Society ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2019-01-23 , DOI: 10.1186/s13705-018-0182-z
Gerhard Fuchs

Unnerstall, T.

The German Energy Transition: Design, Implementation, Cost and Lessons

Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer; 2017

156 pages, ISBN 978-3-662-54328-3

The German energy transition has attracted a lot of general and scholarly interest. It is looked upon as a challenging experiment for the transformation of an entrenched large technical system. Some observers are interpreting it primarily as a policy experiment, while others are interested in the bottom up character of the developments, or the sectoral transformation of an industrial sector is analyzed. The question is discussed, whether the general public is a force propelling developments forward or whether the social acceptance will become an important issue. This short list does not mean to be exhaustive. It hints at the impression that the transition is a major social and political issue that at least in Germany is hotly debated.

For a rational debate and discussion, it is of course worthwhile to be aware of some basic facts and figures. Thomas Unnerstall’s book intends to provide this solid basis for a more rational discussion. He writes, “The central purpose of this book is to give a systematic, impartial account” of the German energy transition (p. 141). This account is divided into four big parts. Following an introduction, the motivating forces of the German “Energiewende” are discussed. Part two discusses the present state of affairs and part three deals with issues of cost. The concluding part addresses lessons learnt and looks at future developments.

The book in fact provides a lot of valuable information and arguments and can therefore be recommended for someone who wants to get accustomed with some of the main issues discussed at the moment. The presentation of the “facts” comes from the point of view of an economist, and this is not the only reason why an “impartial” analysis is not to be expected and most probably is not possible at all. One of the issues the author clearly recognizes is that “The Energiewende is a political project.” (p. 11). This project is connected with costs, and the author gathers that he can talk about costs as a stable and neutral item without regard for the political side of the project. This makes some of the arguments not really convincing. As an economist, he regularly talks about a market, as if the market would be something like a neutral thing with its own laws. But the “Energiewende” has clearly shown that constantly new markets arise and market frameworks continuously change the valuation of what is of what “worth” also develops. Insofar, it is difficult to do some consistent calculating. The author is right in assuming that if we would start the “Energiewende” only now (in 2017) it would be much cheaper. However, the situation of 2017 is not conceivable without the technological development, cost degression, and the international developments connected to and dependent on the early German start.

In spite of the fact that we tend to talk about the energy transition (Energiewende), most of the time we refer only to electricity. Unnerstall is very clear with pointing this out. He is also only concerned with electricity, which is usually considered to be a German success story. Many other elements of an energy transition (e.g., mobility, CO₂ reductions, heat) in which Germany does not do fare very well, are neglected. In spite of the author’s aim to concentrate on electricity, he gives some figures and interpretations about other forms of energy as well (e.g., oil), which are nice to have, but would not be needed in the framework of the book.

When it comes to identifying “policy mistakes” at least at this point, we are leaving the realm of impartial analysis. It is quite true that many things went wrong, but why and what could have been the better alternatives is difficult to say. As mentioned above, we are dealing with a political process in which over time political priorities change; individuals, parties, and organizations responsible for the electricity transition changed; decision-making competencies were shifted between ministries, and so on. Insofar, we can clearly identify a lot of problematic developments that were and are happening from different points of view, but to say that there is or was one best way to proceed moves the whole thing out of the realm of politics and envisions a know-all, powerful external actor.

One of the best traits of the book is its dealing with the cost question. Unnerstall makes clear that the cost issue has been blown out of proportion in the public discussion in order to delegitimize the energy transition. He also states very clearly that the whole discussion should not concentrate only on abstract costs but on the financing mechanisms chosen to pay for the transition and thus responsible for the costs the individual user has to pay.

Overall, it can be said that the book is worthwhile reading, and it provides a host of interesting figures and arguments. The argumentation overall is clearly one inspired by economic thinking. A truly impartial analysis should not be expected and will for all we know an unachievable task.

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University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany
- Gerhard Fuchs

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GF compiled the book review and read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Gerhard Fuchs.

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Fuchs, G. From the economist’s point of view—a review of the “The German energy transition: Design, implementation, cost and lessons” by Thomas Unnerstall. Energ Sustain Soc 9, 3 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-018-0182-z

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Received: 15 November 2018
Accepted: 25 November 2018
Published: 23 January 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-018-0182-z

Keywords

Energy transition
Germany
Costs
Policies

中文翻译：

从经济学家的角度出发-托马斯·昂纳斯托（Thomas Unnerstall）对“德国能源转型：设计，实施，成本和教训”的评论

恩纳斯托尔，T。

德国能源转型：设计，实施，成本和经验教训

柏林，海德堡：施普林格；2017年

156页，ISBN 978-3-662-54328-3

德国的能源转型已经引起了广泛的学术兴趣。它被视为对根深蒂固的大型技术系统进行转型的具有挑战性的实验。一些观察者主要将其解释为一项政策实验，而另一些观察者则对发展的自下而上特征感兴趣，或者对工业部门的部门转型进行了分析。讨论的问题是，公众是推动发展的力量，还是社会接受度是否将成为重要问题。此简短列表并不意味着要详尽无遗。它给人的印象是，过渡是至少在德国引起激烈辩论的主要社会和政治问题。

对于理性的辩论和讨论，当然应该了解一些基本事实和数据。Thomas Unnerstall的书旨在为更理性的讨论提供坚实的基础。他写道：“这本书的主要目的是对德国的能源转型进行系统，公正的说明”（第141页）。该帐户分为四个主要部分。介绍之后，讨论了德国“ Energiewende”的动力。第二部分讨论了当前的事务状态，第三部分讨论了成本问题。结论部分介绍了经验教训，并展望了未来的发展。

实际上，这本书提供了许多有价值的信息和论据，因此可以推荐给想要习惯当前讨论的一些主要问题的人。“事实”的表述是从经济学家的角度出发的，这并不是不希望进行“偏见”分析并且根本不可能进行“偏见”分析的唯一原因。作者清楚地认识到的一个问题是“ Energiewende是一个政治项目。” （第11页）。这个项目与成本有关，作者认为他可以将成本作为一个稳定而中立的项目来谈论，而无需考虑项目的政治方面。这使某些论点没有说服力。作为经济学家，他经常谈论市场，仿佛市场将根据自己的法律成为一个中立的事物。但是，“ Energiewende”清楚地表明，不断有新的市场出现，市场框架不断改变“价值”也发展起来的价值。就此而言，很难进行一些一致的计算。作者的假设是正确的，如果我们仅在现在（2017年）启动“ Energiewende”，那就便宜了。但是，如果没有技术发展，成本下降以及与德国早期起步有关并依赖德国起步的国际发展，那么2017年的情况是不可想象的。作者的假设是正确的，如果我们仅在现在（2017年）启动“ Energiewende”，那就便宜了。但是，如果没有技术发展，成本下降以及与德国早期起步有关并依赖德国起步的国际发展，那么2017年的情况是不可想象的。作者的假设是正确的，如果我们仅在现在（2017年）启动“ Energiewende”，那就便宜了。但是，如果没有技术发展，成本下降以及与德国早期起步有关并依赖德国起步的国际发展，那么2017年的情况是不可想象的。

尽管我们倾向于谈论能源转型（Energiewende），但在大多数情况下，我们仅指电力。指出这一点，Unnerstall非常清楚。他还只关注电力，这通常被认为是德国的成功故事。忽略了德国表现不佳的能源转型的许多其他要素（例如，流动性，CO ₂减少，热量）。尽管作者的目标是专注于电力，但他也给出了有关其他形式能源（例如石油）的一些数字和解释，虽然很好，但在本书的框架中并不需要。

至少到现在为止，在确定“政策错误”时，我们将离开公正分析的领域。确实有很多事情出了错，但是很难说为什么以及什么是更好的选择。如上所述，我们正在处理一个政治进程，随着时间的流逝，政治优先事项会发生变化。负责电力过渡的个人，政党和组织发生了变化；决策能力在各部之间转移，依此类推。就此而言，我们可以从不同的角度清楚地识别出过去和正在发生的许多有问题的发展，但是要说，存在或存在一种最佳的发展方法是将整个事情从政治领域移开，并设想一种知识。所有，强大的外部演员。

这本书的最好特征之一就是它处理成本问题。Unnerstall明确指出，为了使能源过渡合法化，成本问题在公开讨论中已被夸大。他还非常清楚地指出，整个讨论不应仅集中在抽象成本上，而应集中在为过渡支付的融资机制上，从而对个人用户必须支付的成本负责。

总的来说，可以说这本书值得一读，并且提供了许多有趣的数字和论据。总体而言，这一论点显然是受经济思想启发的。真正公正的分析不应该被期望，并且对于我们所知的所有人而言，这将是一项无法完成的任务。

不适用。