The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Thailand intends to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20 to 25% from the projected business as usual level by 2030 with the deployment of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency improvement measures in both the supply and demand sectors. However, in order to contribute towards meeting the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement to stay well below 2 °C, ambitious mitigation efforts beyond 2030 are needed. As such, it is necessary to assess the effects of imposing more stringent long-term GHG reduction targets in Thailand beyond the NDC commitment. This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of limiting the GHG emissions by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model on Thailand’s economy during 2010 to 2050. Besides the business as usual (BAU) scenario, this study assesses the macroeconomic effects of ten low to medium GHG mitigation scenarios under varying GHG reduction targets of 20 to 50%. In addition, this study also assesses three different peak emission scenarios, each targeting a GHG reduction of up to 90% by 2050, to analyze the feasibility of zero GHG emissions in Thailand to pursue efforts to hold the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as considered in the Paris Agreement. According to the BAU scenario, the GHG emissions from the electricity, industry, and transport sectors would remain the most prominent throughout the planning period. The modeling results indicate that the medium to peak emission reduction scenarios could result in a serious GDP loss compared to the BAU scenario, and therefore, the attainment of such mitigation targets could be very challenging for Thailand. Results suggest that the development and deployment of energy-efficient and renewable energy-based technologies would play a significant role not only in minimizing the GHG emissions but also for overcoming the macroeconomic loss and lowering the price of GHG emissions. The results reveal that without a transformative change in the economic structure and energy system of Thailand, the country would have to face enormous cost in reducing its GHG emissions.

中文翻译：

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使用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型的不同温室气体减排情景对泰国经济和社会福利的影响

泰国的国家自主贡献（NDC）计划通过在供应和需求方面部署可再生能源技术和提高能效的措施，到2030年将温室气体（GHG）排放量从正常水平降低20％到25％部门。但是，为了有助于实现《巴黎协定》的长期目标，以将其温度控制在远低于2°C的水平，需要在2030年之后做出雄心勃勃的减排努力。因此，有必要评估对泰国实施更严格的长期温室气体减排目标（超出国家数据中心承诺）的影响。本文使用可计算的一般均衡（CGE）模型分析了泰国在2010年至2050年之间的经济状况，以限制温室气体排放。这项研究评估了在20％至50％的不同温室气体减排目标下，十种中低度温室气体减排方案的宏观经济影响。此外，本研究还评估了三种不同的峰值排放情景，每种情景的目标是到2050年将温室气体排放量减少90％，以分析泰国实现零温室气体排放量的可行性，以努力将全球温度升高保持在1.5°C以上《巴黎协定》所考虑的工业化前水平。根据BAU情景，在整个计划期间，电力，工业和运输部门的温室气体排放仍将是最主要的。建模结果表明，与BAU情景相比，中到峰值减排情景可能会导致严重的GDP损失，因此，对于泰国而言，实现这种缓解目标可能是非常具有挑战性的。结果表明，基于节能和可再生能源的技术的开发和部署不仅在最大程度地减少温室气体排放方面，而且在克服宏观经济损失和降低温室气体排放价格方面将发挥重要作用。结果表明，如果不对泰国的经济结构和能源系统进行变革，该国在减少温室气体排放方面将面临巨大的成本。