Many countries state ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions. Their policy strategies emphasize energy efficiency by means of technological innovations. However, these strategies are at risk of severe rebound effects, as savings from more efficient products and facilities may be (over-)compensated by rearrangements in consumer behavior. While rebound effects are widely acknowledged, it is less clear how they arise from the complex interactions between market actors, consumer preferences, and policy initiatives. We propose a simplified representation of these complex dynamics, in order to point out levers for counteracting rebound effects. A pathway mapping integrates results from fuzzy cognitive mapping of expert knowledge, from a household survey on adoption and use and from macroeconomic modelling of energy efficiency policies. Core drivers identified across all methods are joined to a cause-and-effect diagram. The respective strengths of influence are standardized to effect coefficients. By tracing policy impulses through the web of interlinked drivers, the pathway mapping illustrates direct, mediated, and unintended impacts on market diffusion, rebound, and carbon emission reductions of energy-efficient technologies. Pathway mapping is demonstrated as an approach for integrating diverse disciplinary methods into a joint narrative illustrating overarching dynamics. Applying this methodology to building renovations and electric cars in Austria, the need to balance technology adoption and use becomes apparent. Convergent drivers stimulate the market uptake of the energy-efficient technology and simultaneously constrain rebound effects. For instance, educating customers on product features and activating their pro-environmental values, encourages technology adoption as well as ecological use. Contrastingly, divergent drivers have opposing effects on adoption and use. For example, fuel taxes counteract rebound, but also hinder adoption by increasing lifetime costs. Higher income enables adopters to carry upfront investment costs, but also increases spending in other, carbon-intensive consumption domains. The pathway maps show that market-oriented instruments promote the adoption of energy-efficient technologies but also the rebound effect in their subsequent use. Policy interventions should be carefully designed to leverage convergent and to circumnavigate divergent drivers in order to address multiple impact paths. Climate strategies should not underestimate the role of socio-psychological characteristics and key actors.

中文翻译：

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在避免反弹的同时促进采用：将有关电动汽车的市场扩散和碳影响以及奥地利建筑翻新的学科观点整合在一起

许多国家都制定了减少碳排放的宏伟目标。他们的政策策略通过技术创新来强调能源效率。但是，这些策略面临严重反弹效应的风险，因为更有效的产品和设施所节省的成本可能会因消费者行为的重新安排而得到（过度）补偿。尽管反弹效应已得到广泛认可，但尚不清楚它们是如何由市场参与者，消费者偏好和政策措施之间的复杂相互作用产生的。我们提出这些复杂动力学的简化表示，以便指出抵消反弹效果的杠杆。路径映射整合了专家知识的模糊认知映射，家庭采用和使用情况调查以及能源效率政策的宏观经济模型得出的结果。跨所有方法确定的核心驱动因素都将加入因果关系图。各自的影响强度被标准化为影响系数。通过在相互关联的驱动因素网络中追踪政策冲动，路径映射图说明了节能技术对市场扩散，反弹和碳排放减少的直接，中介和意想不到的影响。路径映射被证明是一种将多种学科方法整合到联合叙述中的一种方法，该方法说明了总体动态。将这种方法应用于奥地利的建筑翻新和电动汽车，很明显需要平衡技术的采用和使用。趋同的驱动因素刺激了市场对高能效技术的采用，同时限制了反弹效应。例如，对客户进行产品功能教育并激活其环保价值，从而鼓励技术采用和生态利用。相反，不同的驱动因素对采用和使用产生相反的影响。例如，燃油税抵消了反弹，但也因增加使用寿命成本而阻碍了燃油税的采用。较高的收入使采用者能够承担前期投资成本，但同时也会增加其他碳密集型消费领域的支出。路线图表明，以市场为导向的工具促进了节能技术的采用，但在其后续使用中也产生了反弹效应。应该精心设计政策干预措施，以利用趋同点并规避分歧驱动因素，从而解决多条影响路径。