The Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potential L. muta japonica habitat based on predicted changes to alpine vegetation, to identify population vulnerability under future climatic conditions for conservation planning. We developed species distribution models, which considered the structure of the alpine ecosystem by incorporating spatial hierarchy on specific environmental factors to assess the potential habitats for L. muta japonica under current and future climates. We used 24 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2081–2100 as future climate conditions. The predicted potential habitat for L. muta japonica was similar to the actual distribution of the territories in the study area of Japan’s northern Alps (36.25–36.5°N, 137.5–137.7°E). Future potential habitat for L. muta japonica was projected to decrease to 0.4% of the current potential habitat in the median of occurrence probabilities under 24 GCMs, due to a decrease in alpine vegetation communities. Some potential habitats in the central and northwestern part of the study area were predicted to be sustained in the future, depending on the GCMs. Our model results predicted that the potential habitats for L. muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps, which provides core habitat for this subspecies, would be vulnerable by 2081–2100. Small sustainable habitats may serve as refugia, facilitating the survival of L. muta japonica populations under future climatic conditions. Impact assessment studies of the effect of climate change on L. muta japonica habitats at a nationwide scale are urgently required to establish effective conservation planning for this species, which includes identifying candidate areas for assisted migration as an adaptive strategy.

中文翻译：

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模拟未来野生动植物栖息地的适宜性：严重的气候变化对日本北部阿尔卑斯山的雷鸟拉哥布斯变种粳稻的潜在分布产生影响

雷鸟拉哥布斯变种日本生活在日本中部的高山地区，这是该物种全球分布的南部界限。该物种高度依赖于高山生境，这些生境被认为容易遭受快速气候变化的影响。这项研究旨在基于对高山植被的预测变化，评估气候变化对潜在的日本杂种锦鸡（L. muta japonica）生境的影响，以确定未来气候条件下的种群脆弱性，以进行保护规划。我们开发了物种分布模型，该模型通过将空间层次结构合并到特定的环境因素中来考虑高山生态系统的结构，以评估当前和未来气候下日本粳稻的潜在栖息地。我们将2081年至2100年的24种通用循环模型（GCM）用作未来的气候条件。变异的日本粳稻的潜在栖息地与日本北部阿尔卑斯山研究区的实际分布相似（北纬36.25-36.5°，东经137.5-137.7°）。在24个GCM下，由于高山植被群落的减少，预计突变型日本粳稻的潜在潜在栖息地将减少到当前潜在栖息地的0.4％（在24 GCM下的发生概率中值）。根据GCM的不同，预计研究区域中部和西北部的某些潜在栖息地将在未来持续存在。我们的模型结果预测，到了日本北部阿尔卑斯山的L. muta japonica潜在栖息地到2081–2100年将变得脆弱，而日本北部阿尔卑斯山为这些亚种提供了核心栖息地。小型的可持续生境可作为避难所，促进L.的生存。未来气候条件下的日本粳稻种群。迫切需要在全国范围内对气候变化对日本粳稻生境的影响进行影响评估研究，以建立对该物种的有效保护计划，其中包括确定候选移民区域作为一种适应性策略。