Abstract Scenario planning is a popular decision-support method that is increasingly being applied to climate change adaptation. However, evaluation of scenario planning for adaptation is lacking. In this paper we summarise a science-policy session held at the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference in May 2019, where practitioners explored the strengths and weaknesses of scenario planning for climate adaptation and identified modifications to enhance the method’s utility. Eight case studies spanning three scenario planning types (problem-focused, actor-focused and reflexive-interventionist) from varied socio-cultural contexts were presented by the authors, followed by discussion amongst the 40 participants. Strengths focussed on opportunities provided by scenario planning for stakeholder participation, and raising their awareness about future risks, vulnerability and uncertainty. Participatory scenario planning was most useful for building stakeholder consensus at the local scale (e.g. communities, neighbourhoods) over shorter timeframes (e.g. 20 years). Weaknesses centred on the inability of scenarios to generate quantitative predictions and concrete adaptation solutions. This was partly attributed to practitioners’ limited understanding of stakeholder politics and power dynamics, and the resulting lack of integration of scenario exercises within decision-making processes. Scenarios were also limited by being static, and participatory processes were resource-intensive. Suggested modifications were to develop iterative scenario planning embedded within decision-making cycles. Such ‘transient scenarios’ could absorb system feedbacks and updated information to prioritise adaptation responses, thus actively contributing to ongoing adaptation pathways. Applying monitoring, evaluating and learning would enable reflexive refinement of the method, adapting it to become an agile approach applicable to varied socio-cultural and political contexts.

中文翻译：

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适应气候适应情景：从业者对流行规划方法的看法

摘要 情景规划是一种流行的决策支持方法，越来越多地应用于气候变化适应。然而，缺乏对适应情景规划的评估。在本文中，我们总结了 2019 年 5 月在欧洲气候变化适应会议上举行的科学政策会议，从业者探讨了气候适应情景规划的优缺点，并确定了改进方法以提高方法的效用。作者介绍了八个案例研究，涵盖了来自不同社会文化背景的三种情景规划类型（以问题为中心、以行动者为中心和反思性干预），随后在 40 名参与者之间进行了讨论。优势集中在情景规划为利益相关者参与提供的机会上，并提高他们对未来风险、脆弱性和不确定性的认识。参与式情景规划对于在较短的时间范围内（例如 20 年）在当地范围内（例如社区、邻里）建立利益相关者共识最有用。弱点集中在情景无法生成定量预测和具体的适应解决方案。这部分归因于从业者对利益相关者政治和权力动态的理解有限，以及由此导致的决策过程中缺乏情景演练的整合。情景也受到静态的限制，参与过程是资源密集型的。建议的修改是制定嵌入在决策周期中的迭代情景规划。这种“瞬态情景”可以吸收系统反馈和更新信息，以优先考虑适应反应，从而积极促进正在进行的适应途径。应用监测、评估和学习将能够对方法进行反思性改进，使其成为适用于各种社会文化和政治背景的灵活方法。