Abstract A coupled ice-ocean model with a horizontal resolution of 7 km is developed for the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves to examine climate trend and variability of ocean and ice conditions over 1979–2010. Daily surface atmospheric forcing is applied and monthly open boundary conditions are prescribed. The model has reasonable skill in simulating interannual and decadal variability and long-term (1979–2010) trend for temperature, salinity, transport and ice over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves. At a long-term monitoring station both the model and observation show substantial interannual variability in the surface temperature and salinity, a warming trend in the surface temperature, and no trend in the surface salinity. The model sea ice extent south of 55°N shows significant interannual and decadal variability and a declining trend consistent with observations. Both model and altimetric observation show a declining trend in the transport of the shelf-edge Labrador Current from 1993 to 2010. The total Labrador Current volume transport is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation with time lags of 0–3 years, with the inshore branch having a positive trend while the shelf-edge branch having no trend. The inshore Labrador Current shows an increase of the freshwater transport associated with an increase of the volume transport due to large-scale baroclinic forcing, with the interannual and decadal variability of the freshwater transport dominated by the volume transport; while the shelf-edge transport shows a decrease of the freshwater transport associated with an increase of salinity, with the interannual and decadal variability of the freshwater transport dominated by salinity.

中文翻译：

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1979-2010 年纽芬兰和拉布拉多海域的海洋气候变化：一种建模方法

摘要 为纽芬兰和拉布拉多大陆架开发了一个水平分辨率为 7 km 的冰-海耦合模型，以研究 1979-2010 年间的气候趋势和海洋和冰况的变化。应用每日地表大气强迫并规定月度开放边界条件。该模型在模拟纽芬兰和拉布拉多大陆架上的温度、盐度、运输和冰的年际和年代际变化以及长期（1979-2010 年）趋势方面具有合理的技能。在一个长期监测站，模型和观测都显示地表温度和盐度的年际变化很大，地表温度有变暖趋势，而地表盐度没有趋势。55°N 以南的模式海冰范围显示出显着的年际和年代际变化以及与观测一致的下降趋势。模型和测高观测均显示 1993 年至 2010 年陆架边缘拉布拉多洋流输运量呈下降趋势。拉布拉多洋流总运量与北大西洋涛动相关，时滞为 0-3 年，近岸支流有一个积极的趋势而货架边缘分支没有趋势。近海拉布拉多海流显示，由于大规模斜压强迫，淡水输送量增加，淡水输送量增加，淡水输送量的年际和年代际变化以体积输送量为主；