In this retrospective study of a randomised trial of simtuzumab in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), prodromal decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) was significantly associated with increased risk of mortality, respiratory and all-cause hospitalisations, and categorical disease progression. Predictive modelling of progression-free survival event risk was used to assess the effect of population enrichment for patients at risk of rapid progression of IPF; C-index values were 0.64 (death), 0.69 (disease progression), and 0.72 (adjudicated respiratory hospitalisation) and 0.76 (all-cause hospitalisation). Predictive modelling may be a useful tool for improving efficiency of clinical trials with categorical end points.

中文翻译：

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特发性肺纤维化疾病进展的危险因素

在这项针对 simtuzumab 治疗特发性肺纤维化 (IPF) 的随机试验的回顾性研究中，用力肺活量 (FVC) 的前驱下降与死亡率、呼吸系统和全因住院以及分类疾病进展的风险增加显着相关。无进展生存事件风险的预测模型用于评估人群富集对有 IPF 快速进展风险的患者的影响；C 指数值为 0.64（死亡）、0.69（疾病进展）、0.72（判定呼吸系统住院）和 0.76（全因住院）。预测建模可能是提高具有分类终点的临床试验效率的有用工具。