Economic activities are dependent upon natural capital (NC), which are responsible for ‘Ecosystem Services’ (ES). Understanding dependencies on NC provides insight into the ecosystem’s capacity to maintain and develop activities into the future. To determine ‘NC dependencies’, we present a framework linking maritime activities (bottom trawling, artisanal fisheries, aquaculture and tourism) to their demand for ES and further, to the NC components responsible for their production. The framework was operationalised using a spatially-explicit Bayesian Belief Network (BBN), using the Basque coast (SE Bay of Biscay) to illustrate our approach, in identifying trends in the strength and spatial distribution of NC dependencies. For example, benthic trawling was dependent on sedimentary habitats, with ‘moderate’ to ‘high’ dependency of 52% of the study area. The model can also extrapolate NC dependencies to a larger area where the activity currently does not operate, where benthic trawling was estimated to have higher utilisation of ES in deeper waters. When NC dependencies are combined with economic and legislative factors, the current spatial distribution of the activity can be explained, and the potential socio-economic impacts of management decisions could be predicted. The integrative approach contributes towards ecosystem-based spatial planning.

经济活动取决于自然资本（NC），自然资本负责“生态系统服务”（ES）。了解对NC的依赖性可以洞察生态系统维护和发展未来活动的能力。为了确定“ NC依赖项”，我们提出了一个框架，将海上活动（底拖网，手工渔业，水产养殖和旅游业）与其对ES的需求以及负责其生产的NC组件联系起来。该框架已使用空间明确的贝叶斯信念网络（BBN）进行了操作，并使用巴斯克海岸（比斯开湾SE）来说明我们的方法，以确定NC依赖项的强度和空间分布趋势。例如，底栖拖网捕捞依赖于沉积栖息地，其中52％的研究区域为“中度”到“高度”依赖。该模型还可以将NC依赖性推算到活动目前无法进行的较大区域，据估计底栖拖网捕鱼在较深水域具有较高的ES利用率。当NC依赖性与经济和立法因素结合在一起时，可以解释活动的当前空间分布，并可以预测管理决策的潜在社会经济影响。综合方法有助于基于生态系统的空间规划。并且可以预测管理决策的潜在社会经济影响。综合方法有助于基于生态系统的空间规划。并且可以预测管理决策的潜在社会经济影响。综合方法有助于基于生态系统的空间规划。