We show that the frequency of damaging convective weather events including lightning, hail and severe wind gusts will likely increase over Europe until the end of this century. We apply a set of additive regression models to an ensemble of 14 regional climate simulations and find that convective instability will increase as a result of rising humidity near the earth’s surface. Even though a slight decrease in thunderstorm occurrence in southwestern and southeastern Europe is projected, the probability of severe weather will increase throughout Europe, in particular for very large hail. It might be expected that Arctic amplification would lead to a weaker jet stream and, thus lower vertical wind shear, but we find instead that the jet changes little or even increases in situations with convective instability. To cope with the rising hazard probabilities, risk models will need to be adapted, while investment in sturdier structures, like the use of hardened glass in greenhouses or solar panels, will become more cost-effective. Furthermore, the need will grow to advise the public on loss prevention by taking precautionary measures as storms approach.

我们表明，直到本世纪末，包括雷电，冰雹和强阵风在内的破坏性对流天气事件的发生频率在整个欧洲都有可能增加。我们将一组加性回归模型应用于14个区域气候模拟的集合，发现对流不稳定性将由于地球表面附近湿度的升高而增加。即使预计欧洲西南部和东南部的雷暴发生会略有减少，但整个欧洲尤其是冰雹很大时，恶劣天气的可能性仍会增加。可以预期，北极的放大作用会导致射流减弱，从而降低垂直风切变，但我们发现，在对流不稳定的情况下，射流变化很小甚至增加。为了应对不断上升的危险概率，将需要调整风险模型，同时对更坚固的结构进行投资，例如在温室或太阳能电池板中使用硬化玻璃，将变得更具成本效益。此外，将越来越需要通过采取预防措施以防暴风雨来向公众提供有关损失预防的建议。