Groundwater depletion is arguably one of humanity's greatest sustainability challenges of the 21st century. With Sustainable Development Goals only a decade away, water authorities around the world are in the urgent need for concrete and targeted measures to ensure that communities adhere to groundwater management policies as rapidly and as effectively as possible. In this paper, we combine computational social science, groundwater modelling and empirical data from the World Values Survey to generate future ensembles of hydro-social trajectories under alternative courses of management and social action or inaction. Our simulations shed new light on the role that cultural values can play in shaping the societal trajectories and norms that emerge when resources are either allocated or not sufficiently allocated to monitor compliance, issue fines, engage community leaders, and deter rule-breakers. This study presents a new approach to explore and evaluate the capacity of existing and future management actions to steer groundwater systems towards sustainable trajectories, to forecast the celerity and timing of social transformations at the inter-decadal scale, and to help nations identify the most pertinent management options under institutional, political, social, and/or cultural constraints. The methods presented here are broadly applicable to support strategic decisions that rely on the monitoring, enforcement, and compliance of environmental regulations.

地下水枯竭可以说是21世纪人类最大的可持续发展挑战之一。距可持续发展目标仅十年之遥，世界各地的水务部门都迫切需要采取具体而有针对性的措施，以确保社区尽快并有效地遵守地下水管理政策。在本文中，我们将计算社会科学，地下水模型和来自世界价值调查的经验数据相结合，以在管理和社会行动或不作为的替代过程下生成未来的水社会轨迹。我们的模拟为文化价值在塑造社会轨迹和规范中所扮演的角色提供了新的视角，这些轨迹和规范在资源分配或分配不足以监控合规性，罚款，与社区领袖互动，并阻止违反规则的人。这项研究提出了一种新方法，以探索和评估现有和未来管理行动的能力，以指导地下水系统朝着可持续的方向发展，以年代际尺度预测社会转型的速度和时机，并帮助各国确定最相关的在制度，政治，社会和/或文化约束下的管理选择。本文介绍的方法广泛适用于支持依赖于环境法规的监视，执行和遵守的战略决策。在十年间规模上预测社会变革的速度和时机，并帮助各国在制度，政治，社会和/或文化约束下确定最相关的管理选择。本文介绍的方法广泛适用于支持依赖于环境法规的监视，执行和遵守的战略决策。在十年间规模上预测社会变革的速度和时机，并帮助各国在制度，政治，社会和/或文化约束下确定最相关的管理选择。本文介绍的方法广泛适用于支持依赖于环境法规的监视，执行和遵守的战略决策。