Most of Earth's biodiversity is found in 36 biodiversity hotspots, yet less than 10% natural intact vegetation remains. We calculated models projecting the future state of most of these hotspots for the year 2050, based on future climatic and agroeconomic pressure. Our models project an increasing demand for agricultural land resulting in the conversion of >50% of remaining natural intact vegetation in about one third of all hotspots, and in 2–6 hotspots resulting from climatic pressure. This confirms that, in the short term, habitat loss is of greater concern than climate change for hotspots and their biodiversity. Hotspots are most severely threatened in tropical Africa and parts of Asia, where demographic pressure and the demand for agricultural land is highest. The speed and magnitude of pristine habitat loss is, according to our models, much greater than previously shown when combining both scenarios on future climatic and agroeconomic pressure.

中文翻译：

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生物多样性热点的最终倒计时

地球上大多数生物多样性都存在于36个生物多样性热点中，但仍然保留了不到10％的自然完整植被。我们根据未来的气候和农业经济压力，计算出了预测到2050年大多数热点地区未来状态的模型。我们的模型预测，对农业用地的需求将不断增加，从而导致约50％的热点地区中超过50％的剩余自然完整植被转化，以及由于气候压力而导致的2–6个热点地区中的转变。这证实，就热点及其生物多样性而言，在短期内，与气候变化相比，生境丧失受到更大的关注。热点在热带非洲和亚洲部分地区受到最严重的威胁，那里的人口压力和对农业用地的需求最高。根据我们的模型，原始栖息地丧失的速度和程度