Abstract Public opinions play a pivotal role in public participation and decision-making in mega construction projects. The rise of technology and social media has facilitated the online public debate on social impacts derived from mega construction projects. This study presents a novel approach to analyze the evolution of public opinions through social media. This analysis framework covers: the temporal patterns of online messages, evolution of frames, and evolution of users. Such novel approach is employed to analyze the evolution of online public opinions on a mega construction project. Content analysis and a number of curve fitting methods were innovatively combined. Results show that social event had dual diffusion cycles while the formation mechanism of each cycle was completely different. The key parameters of Bimodal Gaussian model can depict the characteristics of online diffusion of public opinions. Elites and media organizations form the crucial nodes in the online diffusion process. The sequence of each frame and their share in the total number of frames are determined by preference of elites and media organizations. These findings are useful to develop effective strategy for public engagement, and to prevent and intervene the social conflicts.

中文翻译：

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NIMBY设施引发的社会影响网络舆情演变

摘要 公众舆论在大型建设项目的公众参与和决策中起着举足轻重的作用。技术和社交媒体的兴起促进了关于大型建设项目产生的社会影响的在线公开辩论。本研究提出了一种通过社交媒体分析公众舆论演变的新方法。该分析框架涵盖：在线消息的时间模式、框架的演变和用户的演变。采用这种新颖的方法来分析大型建设项目的在线舆论演变。内容分析与多项曲线拟合方法创新结合。结果表明，社会事件具有双重扩散循环，而每个循环的形成机制完全不同。双峰高斯模型的关键参数可以刻画舆论在线传播的特征。精英和媒体机构是网络传播过程中的关键节点。每帧的顺序及其在总帧数中的份额由精英和媒体机构的偏好决定。这些发现有助于制定有效的公众参与策略，以及预防和干预社会冲突。