Abundant evidence supports the benefits accrued to the Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) population via the genetic introgression project implemented in South Florida, USA, in 1995. Since then, genetic diversity has improved, the frequency of morphological and biomedical correlates of inbreeding depression have declined, and the population size has increased. Nevertheless, the panther population remains small and isolated and faces substantial challenges due to deterministic and stochastic forces. Our goals were 1) to comprehensively assess the demographics of the Florida panther population using long‐term (1981–2015) field data and modeling to gauge the persistence of benefits accrued via genetic introgression and 2) to evaluate the effectiveness of various potential genetic management strategies. Translocation and introduction of female pumas (Puma concolor stanleyana) from Texas, USA, substantially improved genetic diversity. The average individual heterozygosity of canonical (non‐introgressed) panthers was 0.386 ± 0.012 (SE); for admixed panthers, it was 0.615 ± 0.007. Survival rates were strongly age‐dependent (kittens had the lowest survival rates), were positively affected by individual heterozygosity, and decreased with increasing population abundance. Overall annual kitten survival was 0.32 ± 0.09; sex did not have a clear effect on kitten survival. Annual survival of subadult and adult panthers differed by sex; regardless of age, females exhibited higher survival than males. Annual survival rates of subadult, prime adult, and old adult females were 0.97 ± 0.02, 0.86 ± 0.03, and 0.78 ± 0.09, respectively. Survival rates of subadult, prime adult, and old adult males were 0.66 ± 0.06, 0.77 ± 0.05, and 0.65 ± 0.10, respectively. For panthers of all ages, genetic ancestry strongly affected survival rate, where first filial generation (F1) admixed panthers of all ages exhibited the highest rates and canonical (mostly pre‐introgression panthers and their post‐introgression descendants) individuals exhibited the lowest rates. The most frequently observed causes of death of radio‐collared panthers were intraspecific aggression and vehicle collision. Cause‐specific mortality analyses revealed that mortality rates from vehicle collision, intraspecific aggression, other causes, and unknown causes were generally similar for males and females, although males were more likely to die from intraspecific aggression than females. The probability of reproduction and the annual number of kittens produced varied by age; evidence that ancestry or abundance influenced these parameters was weak. Predicted annual probabilities of reproduction were 0.35 ± 0.08, 0.50 ± 0.05, and 0.25 ± 0.06 for subadult, prime adult, and old adult females, respectively. The number of kittens predicted to be produced annually by subadult, prime adult, and old adult females were 2.80 ± 0.75, 2.67 ± 0.43, and 2.28 ± 0.83, respectively. The stochastic annual population growth rate estimated using a matrix population model was 1.04 (95% CI = 0.72–1.41). An individual‐based population model predicted that the probability that the population would fall below 10 panthers within 100 years (quasi‐extinction) was 1.4% (0–0.8%) if the adverse effects of genetic erosion were ignored. However, when the effect of genetic erosion was considered, the probability of quasi‐extinction within 100 years increased to 17% (0–100%). Mean times to quasi‐extinction, conditioned on going quasi‐extinct within 100 years, was 22 (0–75) years when the effect of genetic erosion was considered. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the probability of quasi‐extinction and expected time until quasi‐extinction were most sensitive to changes in kitten survival parameters. Without genetic management intervention, the Florida panther population would face a substantially increased risk of quasi‐extinction. The question, therefore, is not whether genetic management of the Florida panther population is needed but when and how it should be implemented. Thus, we evaluated genetic and population consequences of alternative genetic introgression strategies to identify optimal management actions using individual‐based simulation models. Releasing 5 pumas every 20 years would cost much less ($200,000 over 100 years) than releasing 15 pumas every 10 years ($1,200,000 over 100 years) yet would reduce the risk of quasi‐extinction by comparable amount (44–59% vs. 40–58%). Generally, releasing more females per introgression attempt provided little added benefit. The positive effects of the genetic introgression project persist in the panther population after 20 years. We suggest that managers contemplate repeating genetic introgression by releasing 5–10 individuals from other puma populations every 20–40 years. We also recommend that managers continue to collect data that will permit estimation and monitoring of kitten, adult, and subadult survival. We identified these parameters via sensitivity analyses as most critical in terms of their impact on the probability of and expected times to quasi‐extinction. The continuation of long‐term monitoring should permit the adaptation of genetic management strategies as necessary while collecting data that have proved essential in assessing the genetic and demographic health of the population. The prospects for recovery of the panther will certainly be improved by following these guidelines. © 2019 The Authors. Wildlife Monographs published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

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动力学，持久性和遗传管理的濒临灭绝的佛罗里达黑豹种群

大量证据支持佛罗里达豹（Puma concolor coryi）的收益。通过1995年在美国南佛罗里达州实施的基因渗入计划实现的种群数量。此后，遗传多样性得到改善，近交抑郁的形态学和生物医学相关性的频率下降，并且种群数量增加。尽管如此，由于确定性和随机性的影响，黑豹种群仍然很少而且孤立，面临着巨大的挑战。我们的目标是1）使用长期（1981-2015）现场数据和模型来全面评估佛罗里达豹种群的人口统计数据，并进行建模以评估通过基因渗入获得的收益的持久性；以及2）评估各种潜在遗传管理的有效性策略。雌性美洲豹（美洲狮stanleyana的易位和引种来自美国得克萨斯州）的遗传多样性大大提高。典型（非渗入）黑豹的平均个体杂合度为0.386±0.012（SE）；对于混合豹，该值为0.615±0.007。存活率在很大程度上取决于年龄（小猫的存活率最低），受个体杂合性的积极影响，并随着种群数量的增加而降低。小猫年总生存时间为0.32±0.09；性对小猫的存活没有明显的影响。亚成年豹和成年豹的年生存率因性别而异；不论年龄大小，女性的存活率均高于男性。亚成年女性，成年女性和成年女性的年生存率分别为0.97±0.02、0.86±0.03和0.78±0.09。亚成人，成年男性和成年男性的生存率分别为0.66±0.06、0.77±0.05和0。分别为65±0.10。对于所有年龄的黑豹，遗传祖先都极大地影响了存活率，其中各个年龄段的第一代子代（F1）混合黑豹显示出最高的发生率，而规范的（主要是渗入前的黑豹及其渗入后代）的个体显示出最低的发生率。最常观察到的放射性领豹的死亡原因是种内侵略和车辆碰撞。特定原因的死亡率分析显示，男性和女性死于车辆碰撞，种内攻击，其他原因和未知原因的死亡率通常相似，尽管男性死于种内攻击的可能性高于女性。繁殖的可能性和每年繁殖的小猫的数量因年龄而异；祖先或丰度影响这些参数的证据很少。对于成年雌性，成年雌性和成年雌性，预测的年繁殖概率分别为0.35±0.08、0.50±0.05和0.25±0.06。预计每年由成年雌性，成年雌性和成年雌性生产的小猫数分别为2.80±0.75、2.67±0.43和2.28±0.83。使用矩阵人口模型估算的随机年增长率为1.04（95％CI = 0.72-1.41）。基于个体的人口模型预测，如果忽略基因侵蚀的不利影响，则在100年内（灭绝）该种群下降到10头以下的可能性为1.4％（0-0.8％）。但是，考虑到遗传侵蚀的影响，100年内准绝灭的可能性增加到17％（0–100％）。考虑到遗传侵蚀的影响，准灭绝的平均时间以准于100年内灭绝为条件，为22（0-75）年。敏感性分析表明，准灭绝的可能性和直到准绝灭的预期时间对小猫生存参数的变化最为敏感。如果没有基因管理干预，佛罗里达豹种群将面临大大增加的准灭绝风险。因此，问题不在于是否需要对佛罗里达黑豹种群进行遗传管理，而应在何时以及如何实施。因此，我们评估了替代基因渗入策略的遗传和种群后果，以使用基于个体的模拟模型来确定最佳管理措施。每20年释放5颗美洲豹的成本（100年为200,000美元）要比每10年释放15颗美洲豹（100年为1,200,000美元）要少得多，但将减少类似灭绝的风险（44-59％比40- 58％）。通常，每次渗入尝试释放更多的雌性几乎没有增加益处。遗传渗入计划的积极影响在20年后仍持续存在于黑豹种群中。我们建议管理者考虑每20-40年从其他美洲狮种群中释放5-10个人，从而重复进行基因渗入。我们还建议管理人员继续收集数据，以评估和监测小猫，成年和亚成年动物的存活率。我们通过敏感性分析将这些参数确定为对准灭绝的可能性和预期时间影响最为关键的参数。长期监测的继续应允许在收集已证明对评估人口遗传和人口健康至关重要的数据的同时，根据需要调整遗传管理策略。通过遵循这些准则，豹恢复的前景肯定会得到改善。©2019作者。长期监测的继续应允许在收集已证明对评估人口遗传和人口健康至关重要的数据的同时，根据需要调整遗传管理策略。通过遵循这些准则，豹恢复的前景肯定会得到改善。©2019作者。长期监测的继续应允许在收集已证明对评估人口遗传和人口健康至关重要的数据的同时，根据需要调整遗传管理策略。通过遵循这些准则，豹恢复的前景肯定会得到改善。©2019作者。Wiley Periodicals，Inc.代表野生动物协会出版的野生动物专着。